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2024 Presidential Nomination predictions & odds

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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

36%

J.D. Vance

$618M Vol.

$1M today

$30M Liq.

397

Ends in over 2 years

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

24%

Gavin Newsom

$1B Vol.

$1M today

$61M Liq.

735

Ends in over 2 years

Democratic VP Nominee 2028

Democratic VP Nominee 2028

24%

James Talarico

$13.7K Vol.

$299K Liq.

Ends in about 2 years

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

86%

$2.3K Vol.

$4.8K Liq.

2

Ends in 6 months

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

87%

$11.0K Vol.

$14.4K Liq.

1

Ends in 3 months

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

37%

$1.2K Vol.

$2.5K Liq.

2

Ends in over 2 years

Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?

Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?

14%

$1.3K Vol.

$7.7K Liq.

1

Ends in over 2 years

Republican VP Nominee 2028

Republican VP Nominee 2028

32%

Vivek Ramaswamy

$7.3K Vol.

$334K Liq.

Ends in about 2 years

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

86%

$2.7K Vol.

$2.1K Liq.

2

Ends in 6 months

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

8%

$15.5K Vol.

$12.8K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%

JD Vance

$582M Vol.

$1M today

$30M Liq.

911

Ends in over 2 years

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

20%

Ron DeSantis

$643K Vol.

$528K Liq.

15

Ends in 8 months

Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?

Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?

14%

December 31, 2026

$80.7K Vol.

$8.8K Liq.

11

Ends in 8 months

CA-04 Primary Winners

CA-04 Primary Winners

97%

Mike Thompson

$29.7K Vol.

$59.1K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

20%

$11.5K Vol.

$7.8K Liq.

2

Ends in over 2 years

Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?

Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?

3%

$14.5K Vol.

$13.7K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

60%

Democratic

$2M Vol.

$382K Liq.

75

Ends in over 2 years

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

63%

Thomas Massie

$1M Vol.

$103K today

$131K Liq.

93

Ends in 3 days

Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?

Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?

2%

$55.9K Vol.

$15.5K Liq.

5

Ends in about 2 months

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

98%

Jorge Nieto

$469K Vol.

$88.4K Liq.

2

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like 2024 Presidential Nomination.

Polymarket currently hosts 109 active markets for 2024 Presidential Nomination that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $2.3B in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 24% chance to Gavin Newsom. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on 2024 Presidential Nomination predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.