Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

Name: Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
Start: 2026-02-17T22:45:34.371Z
End: 2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Democrats

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

27% chance

NEW

Nov 7, 2028

27% chance

NEW

Nov 7, 2028

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability against a female 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, driven by early frontrunner status for male candidates like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who leads at 24% odds, followed by Sens. Jon Ossoff and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trailing far behind. This reflects post-2024 caution after Kamala Harris's general election loss, with prediction markets discounting her current 4.5% standing despite a March Center Square poll showing her at 31% nationally amid varied demographic support. A February New Hampshire survey similarly favored former Transportation Sec. Pete Buttigieg at 20%, underscoring no clear female path to victory as 2026 midterms approach to reshape the primary field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 28, 2026, 5:25 AM UTC

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 27% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 27¢, the market collectively assigns a 27% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" is 27% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 27% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of "Yes" or "No" represents the market's implied probability. A "Yes" price of 27¢ for "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" means traders collectively believe there is a 27% chance this event will happen. If you buy "Yes" at 27¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 73¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.

The "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" market is a long-term prediction with a resolution date of Nov 7, 2028 — that's roughly over 3 years away. Long-term markets on Polymarket often see their odds shift significantly as events unfold, making them useful for tracking evolving sentiment. You can trade at any time or bookmark this page to follow the odds over the months and years ahead.

The "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

Order Book

Order Book

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

Order Book

Order Book

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Comments (1)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?"?

What are the current odds for "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?"?

How will "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?"?

What does a price of 27¢ for "Yes" mean?

When does the "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?"?

What is Polymarket?