Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Name: Will the next elected US president be a woman?
Start: 2026-02-17T22:45:34.366Z
End: 2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Kamala

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

20% chance

NEW

Nov 7, 2028

20% chance

NEW

Nov 7, 2028

Donald Trump's projected victory in the 2024 presidential election, securing 312 electoral votes including all seven swing states, has solidified trader consensus at 80% against a female US president, as Kamala Harris conceded defeat on November 6. Official tallies show Trump leading the popular vote by over 2 million, with no successful legal challenges or recounts altering projections. Electors convene December 17 to formalize votes, followed by congressional certification on January 6 ahead of inauguration. This pricing reflects incumbency dynamics absent for Harris, historical precedents of no woman elected president, and the Electoral College's decisive role, though slim uncertainties like faithless electors persist.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 27, 2026, 9:57 PM UTC

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

18%

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

57%

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

26%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the next elected US president be a woman?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 20% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 20¢, the market collectively assigns a 20% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the next elected US president be a woman?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the next elected US president be a woman?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" is 20% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 20% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will the next elected US president be a woman?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Will the next elected US president be a woman?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Will the next elected US president be a woman?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of "Yes" or "No" represents the market's implied probability. A "Yes" price of 20¢ for "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" means traders collectively believe there is a 20% chance this event will happen. If you buy "Yes" at 20¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 80¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.

The "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" market is a long-term prediction with a resolution date of Nov 7, 2028 — that's roughly over 3 years away. Long-term markets on Polymarket often see their odds shift significantly as events unfold, making them useful for tracking evolving sentiment. You can trade at any time or bookmark this page to follow the odds over the months and years ahead.

The "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" market has a growing discussion of 2 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will the next elected US president be a woman?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

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Frequently Asked Questions

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Order Book

Order Book

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Market Context

Rules

Market Context

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Comments (2)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" generated on Polymarket?

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