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Elections·US Election

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Market icon
Elections·US Election

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

$1,526,076 Vol.

Polymarket

$1,526,076 Vol.

Market icon

Democratic

$660,788 Vol.

57%

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Republican

$865,288 Vol.

43%

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Republican victory in the 2024 presidential election with Donald Trump securing a second non-consecutive term has positioned Democrats as trader consensus favorites at 57.5% to reclaim the White House in 2028, while Republicans stand at 42.5%, largely due to constitutional term limits barring Trump from running again. This leaves the GOP reliant on an unproven successor like Vice President JD Vance amid a potentially divisive primary, contrasted with Democrats' deep bench of governors such as Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and JB Pritzker. Recent Trump administration executive orders on border security and tariffs have elicited mixed early approval ratings, with 2026 midterms looming as a pivotal test of congressional control and party momentum; historical base rates show no party winning three straight elections since the 1940s, bolstering Democratic implied probabilities absent major economic or scandal-driven shifts.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$1,526,076
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

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The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Republican victory in the 2024 presidential election with Donald Trump securing a second non-consecutive term has positioned Democrats as trader consensus favorites at 57.5% to reclaim the White House in 2028, while Republicans stand at 42.5%, largely due to constitutional term limits barring Trump from running again. This leaves the GOP reliant on an unproven successor like Vice President JD Vance amid a potentially divisive primary, contrasted with Democrats' deep bench of governors such as Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and JB Pritzker. Recent Trump administration executive orders on border security and tariffs have elicited mixed early approval ratings, with 2026 midterms looming as a pivotal test of congressional control and party momentum; historical base rates show no party winning three straight elections since the 1940s, bolstering Democratic implied probabilities absent major economic or scandal-driven shifts.

Republican victory in the 2024 presidential election with Donald Trump securing a second non-consecutive term has positioned Democrats as trader consensus favorites at 57.5% to reclaim the White House in 2028, while Republicans stand at 42.5%, largely due to constitutional term limits barring Trump from running again. This leaves the GOP reliant on an unproven successor like Vice President JD Vance amid a potentially divisive primary, contrasted with Democrats' deep bench of governors such as Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and JB Pritzker. Recent Trump administration executive orders on border security and tariffs have elicited mixed early approval ratings, with 2026 midterms looming as a pivotal test of congressional control and party momentum; historical base rates show no party winning three straight elections since the 1940s, bolstering Democratic implied probabilities absent major economic or scandal-driven shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democratic" at 57%, followed by "Republican" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" has generated $1.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" is "Democratic" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republican" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.