Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Name: Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Start: 2025-09-15T19:47:16.189Z
End: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z

Elections·US Election

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Mallory McMorrow 63%

Abdul El-Sayed 20%

Haley Stevens 17%

Rashida Tlaib <1%

$107,222 Vol.

Aug 4, 2026

Mallory McMorrow

$19,183 Vol.

63%

Abdul El-Sayed

$72,859 Vol.

20%

Haley Stevens

$15,181 Vol.

17%

Rashida Tlaib

$0 Vol.

<1%

Matt Sahr

$0 Vol.

<1%

Dana Nessel

$0 Vol.

<1%

Sarah Anthony

$0 Vol.

<1%

Andy Levin

$0 Vol.

<1%

Kristen McDonald Rivet

$0 Vol.

<1%

Mallory McMorrow 63%

Abdul El-Sayed 20%

Haley Stevens 17%

Rashida Tlaib <1%

$107,222 Vol.

Aug 4, 2026

Mallory McMorrow

$19,183 Vol.

63%

Abdul El-Sayed

$72,859 Vol.

20%

Haley Stevens

$15,181 Vol.

17%

Rashida Tlaib

$0 Vol.

<1%

Matt Sahr

$0 Vol.

<1%

Dana Nessel

$0 Vol.

<1%

Sarah Anthony

$0 Vol.

<1%

Andy Levin

$0 Vol.

<1%

Kristen McDonald Rivet

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Mallory McMorrow dominates trader consensus at 63% implied probability to win Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, propelled by her early polling leads and robust fundraising after Sen. Debbie Stabenow's retirement created an open seat. Recent internal polls from her campaign show a double-digit edge over Abdul El-Sayed (19.5%), who benefits from progressive support and health policy experience, and Rep. Haley Stevens (17%), leveraging her congressional incumbency. McMorrow's statewide name recognition from viral floor speeches enhances her moderate appeal in this swing state. Minimal odds for others like Rep. Rashida Tlaib reflect fragmented fields, with trader sentiment eyeing further shifts from upcoming endorsements and 2026 primary catalysts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 9:27 PM UTC

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

25%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

50%

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mallory McMorrow" at 63%, followed by "Abdul El-Sayed" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $107.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Mallory McMorrow" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abdul El-Sayed" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $107.2K traded on “Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 63¢ for "Mallory McMorrow" in the "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 63% chance that "Mallory McMorrow" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 63¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 37¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Aug 4, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" market has a growing discussion of 2 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

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