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Politics polymarkets
Fed decision in January?
$161m Vol.
$9m today
$10m Liq.
1,369
Ends in 21 days
90%
No change
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
$138m Vol.
$8m today
$3m Liq.
325
Ends in 12 months
40%
Kevin Hassett
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$444m Vol.
$6m today
$26m Liq.
391
Ends in almost 3 years
36%
Gavin Newsom
Portugal Presidential Election
$89m Vol.
$3m today
$1m Liq.
605
Ends in 18 days
42%
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
$160m Vol.
$2m today
$11m Liq.
196
54%
J.D. Vance
Presidential Election Winner 2028
$173m Vol.
$14m Liq.
526
30%
JD Vance
Elon Musk # tweets January 2 - January 9, 2026?
$6m Vol.
$735k Liq.
Ends in 2 days
22%
480-499
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
$2m Vol.
$571k Liq.
115
14%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
$1m today
$95.5k Liq.
Ends in 24 days
19%
Elon Musk # tweets January 6 - January 13, 2026?
$796k today
$709k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
10%
460-479
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$5m Vol.
$738k today
$514k Liq.
71
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
$8m Vol.
$536k today
$2m Liq.
3%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
$11m Vol.
$471k today
$357k Liq.
1,061
Ends in 3 months
24%
December 31
Elon Musk # tweets January 5 - January 7, 2026?
$650k Vol.
$439k today
$31.3k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
33%
120-129
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
$1m Vol.
$407k today
$883k Liq.
68
45%
Delcy Rodríguez
Elon Musk # tweets January 9 - January 16, 2026?
$433k Vol.
$359k today
$458k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
Will Khamenei leave Iran by...?
$783k Vol.
$334k today
$143k Liq.
30
Ends in 1 day
20%
March 31
US strikes Iran by...?
$297k today
$251k Liq.
39
Ends in 6 months
34%
June 30
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
$284k today
$311k Liq.
38
26%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
$242k today
$123k Liq.
8
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