Trader consensus favors Delcy Rodríguez at 65.5% probability to serve as Venezuela's head of state by end of 2026, reflecting her prominence as vice president and influential PSUV executive secretary, positioning her as the regime's likely successor amid expectations of Nicolás Maduro transitioning power despite his January 2025 inauguration extending his term through 2031. Maduro sits at 15.2% as traders weigh internal party dynamics, economic pressures, and historical Chavista succession patterns. Opposition figures like María Corina Machado (12.5%) and Edmundo González (1.5%) trail far behind due to post-July 2024 election crackdowns, disqualifications, and exile, limiting paths to power. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered sentiment, underscoring regime stability over abrupt change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez 66%
Nicolás Maduro 15.2%
María Corina Machado 13%
Edmundo González 1.4%
$77,410,814 Vol.
$77,410,814 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
66%
Nicolás Maduro
15%
María Corina Machado
13%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
No Head of State
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 66%
Nicolás Maduro 15.2%
María Corina Machado 13%
Edmundo González 1.4%
$77,410,814 Vol.
$77,410,814 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,249,868 Vol.
66%
Nicolás Maduro
$876,198 Vol.
15%
María Corina Machado
$837,055 Vol.
13%
Edmundo González
$416,114 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,237,654 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$686,636 Vol.
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$0 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$738,556 Vol.
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$862,470 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$651,580 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,057,585 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,132,321 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$24,624,874 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$2,733,742 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$1,952,538 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$30,353,777 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trader consensus favors Delcy Rodríguez at 65.5% probability to serve as Venezuela's head of state by end of 2026, reflecting her prominence as vice president and influential PSUV executive secretary, positioning her as the regime's likely successor amid expectations of Nicolás Maduro transitioning power despite his January 2025 inauguration extending his term through 2031. Maduro sits at 15.2% as traders weigh internal party dynamics, economic pressures, and historical Chavista succession patterns. Opposition figures like María Corina Machado (12.5%) and Edmundo González (1.5%) trail far behind due to post-July 2024 election crackdowns, disqualifications, and exile, limiting paths to power. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered sentiment, underscoring regime stability over abrupt change.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$77,410,814End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trader consensus favors Delcy Rodríguez at 65.5% probability to serve as Venezuela's head of state by end of 2026, reflecting her prominence as vice president and influential PSUV executive secretary, positioning her as the regime's likely successor amid expectations of Nicolás Maduro transitioning power despite his January 2025 inauguration extending his term through 2031. Maduro sits at 15.2% as traders weigh internal party dynamics, economic pressures, and historical Chavista succession patterns. Opposition figures like María Corina Machado (12.5%) and Edmundo González (1.5%) trail far behind due to post-July 2024 election crackdowns, disqualifications, and exile, limiting paths to power. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered sentiment, underscoring regime stability over abrupt change.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$77,410,814End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Delcy Rodríguez at 65.5% probability to serve as Venezuela's head of state by end of 2026, reflecting her prominence as vice president and influential PSUV executive secretary, positioning her as the regime's likely successor amid expectations of Nicolás Maduro transitioning power despite his January 2025 inauguration extending his term through 2031. Maduro sits at 15.2% as traders weigh internal party dynamics, economic pressures, and historical Chavista succession patterns. Opposition figures like María Corina Machado (12.5%) and Edmundo González (1.5%) trail far behind due to post-July 2024 election crackdowns, disqualifications, and exile, limiting paths to power. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered sentiment, underscoring regime stability over abrupt change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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