Traders assign a 96.8% probability to Venezuela not becoming the 51st U.S. state, reflecting clear structural barriers under the U.S. Constitution and historical precedent for admitting new states. Only territories under U.S. sovereignty have followed this path, requiring congressional legislation, presidential approval, and often local referendums—none of which apply to an independent foreign nation with its own government and international recognition. No official proposals, diplomatic negotiations, or legislative activity have emerged in recent months to alter this baseline. Extreme scenarios such as a formal treaty of annexation or constitutional amendment remain theoretically possible but lack any supporting political momentum or precedent in modern U.S. foreign policy.