Market icon
World·Trump-Machado

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

Market icon
World·Trump-Machado

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

18% chance
Polymarket

$78,239 Vol.

18% chance
Polymarket

$78,239 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.President Trump's public skepticism toward Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado's leadership viability drives the 82.5% implied probability against his endorsement for the 2026 presidential race. In early January 2026, shortly after U.S.-backed ouster of Nicolás Maduro, Trump stated Machado "doesn't have the support or respect" to run Venezuela and confirmed no prior contact, despite her subsequent White House meeting where she presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. While he later mused about involving her "in some capacity" on January 20, no explicit presidential backing emerged, and on March 13 he warned her against returning amid instability. Traders reflect this via consensus on diplomatic priorities favoring transitional figures like Delcy Rodríguez amid coalition negotiations for snap elections.

President Trump's public skepticism toward Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado's leadership viability drives the 82.5% implied probability against his endorsement for the 2026 presidential race. In early January 2026, shortly after U.S.-backed ouster of Nicolás Maduro, Trump stated Machado "doesn't have the support or respect" to run Venezuela and confirmed no prior contact, despite her subsequent White House meeting where she presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. While he later mused about involving her "in some capacity" on January 20, no explicit presidential backing emerged, and on March 13 he warned her against returning amid instability. Traders reflect this via consensus on diplomatic priorities favoring transitional figures like Delcy Rodríguez amid coalition negotiations for snap elections.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.President Trump's public skepticism toward Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado's leadership viability drives the 82.5% implied probability against his endorsement for the 2026 presidential race. In early January 2026, shortly after U.S.-backed ouster of Nicolás Maduro, Trump stated Machado "doesn't have the support or respect" to run Venezuela and confirmed no prior contact, despite her subsequent White House meeting where she presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. While he later mused about involving her "in some capacity" on January 20, no explicit presidential backing emerged, and on March 13 he warned her against returning amid instability. Traders reflect this via consensus on diplomatic priorities favoring transitional figures like Delcy Rodríguez amid coalition negotiations for snap elections.

President Trump's public skepticism toward Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado's leadership viability drives the 82.5% implied probability against his endorsement for the 2026 presidential race. In early January 2026, shortly after U.S.-backed ouster of Nicolás Maduro, Trump stated Machado "doesn't have the support or respect" to run Venezuela and confirmed no prior contact, despite her subsequent White House meeting where she presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. While he later mused about involving her "in some capacity" on January 20, no explicit presidential backing emerged, and on March 13 he warned her against returning amid instability. Traders reflect this via consensus on diplomatic priorities favoring transitional figures like Delcy Rodríguez amid coalition negotiations for snap elections.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

12%
Market icon

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

16%
Market icon

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?

19%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 18% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 18¢, the market collectively assigns a 18% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?" has generated $78.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?" is 18% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 18% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.