Market icon
World·Trump-Machado

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

Market icon
World·Trump-Machado

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

18% chance
Polymarket

$78,235 Vol.

18% chance
Polymarket

$78,235 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability against Donald Trump endorsing Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for the 2026 presidential race, driven by the complete absence of any such statement since his November 2024 election victory. Machado, who won the opposition primary but faces a regime disqualification upheld by Venezuela's Supreme Court, has lobbied U.S. Republicans including Senator Marco Rubio, yet Trump has focused transition announcements on domestic priorities and broad Latin American migration concerns without naming her. Recent U.S. sanctions on Maduro allies persist, but historical patterns show incoming presidents rarely pre-endorse foreign opposition candidates early, with inauguration in January 2025 and policy deadlines offering potential shifts amid uncertain Venezuelan electoral timelines.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability against Donald Trump endorsing Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for the 2026 presidential race, driven by the complete absence of any such statement since his November 2024 election victory. Machado, who won the opposition primary but faces a regime disqualification upheld by Venezuela's Supreme Court, has lobbied U.S. Republicans including Senator Marco Rubio, yet Trump has focused transition announcements on domestic priorities and broad Latin American migration concerns without naming her. Recent U.S. sanctions on Maduro allies persist, but historical patterns show incoming presidents rarely pre-endorse foreign opposition candidates early, with inauguration in January 2025 and policy deadlines offering potential shifts amid uncertain Venezuelan electoral timelines.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability against Donald Trump endorsing Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for the 2026 presidential race, driven by the complete absence of any such statement since his November 2024 election victory. Machado, who won the opposition primary but faces a regime disqualification upheld by Venezuela's Supreme Court, has lobbied U.S. Republicans including Senator Marco Rubio, yet Trump has focused transition announcements on domestic priorities and broad Latin American migration concerns without naming her. Recent U.S. sanctions on Maduro allies persist, but historical patterns show incoming presidents rarely pre-endorse foreign opposition candidates early, with inauguration in January 2025 and policy deadlines offering potential shifts amid uncertain Venezuelan electoral timelines.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability against Donald Trump endorsing Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for the 2026 presidential race, driven by the complete absence of any such statement since his November 2024 election victory. Machado, who won the opposition primary but faces a regime disqualification upheld by Venezuela's Supreme Court, has lobbied U.S. Republicans including Senator Marco Rubio, yet Trump has focused transition announcements on domestic priorities and broad Latin American migration concerns without naming her. Recent U.S. sanctions on Maduro allies persist, but historical patterns show incoming presidents rarely pre-endorse foreign opposition candidates early, with inauguration in January 2025 and policy deadlines offering potential shifts amid uncertain Venezuelan electoral timelines.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

12%
Market icon

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

20%
Market icon

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?

19%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 18% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 18¢, the market collectively assigns a 18% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?" has generated $78.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?" is 18% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 18% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.