This is a market group on whether Donald Trump will be indicted for criminal charges by the dates listed above.

Will Donald J. Trump be indicted by...?

A 2023 election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, April 4, 2023, to elect a justice to the Wisconsin Supreme Court for a ten-year term. While technically a nonpartisan election, Janet Protasiewicz is backed by Democrats, and Daniel Kelly is backed by Republicans.

Wisconsin Supreme Court Election

This is a market group about whether different cryptos will touch different values.

ETH/BTC Price Touches

This is a market group over the price of Ethereum on March 31, 2023.

$ETH Price

ETH price on March 31 (3 AM ET)?

This is a group of prop markets for 2023 March Madness.

2023 NCAA March Madness will be played from March 14 to April 3.

March Madness Props

This is a market group on The Republican Party nominee for U.S. 2024 Presidential Elections. 

Who will win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 1 BTC is worth more than $1,000,000.00 USD at any time on June 17, 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be consensus of highly liquid price sources for BTC. 

This market will not resolve until June 17 has passed.


Balaji Bet: BTC > $1m USD on June 17?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 1 week after the Shanghai Upgrade, the price of $ETH is at least 3% more than it was at the time of the upgrade. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No."

"1 week after the Shanghai Upgrade" is defined by exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the Shanghai Upgrade. The Shanghai upgrade refers to the the hard fork implementing EIP-4895. If the Shanghai Upgrade does not occur by December 31, 2023, the market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, namely the 1 minute candle close prices which encapsulate the Shanghai Upgrade time and 1 week after.

Will $ETH moon after Shanghai?

This is a market on whether zkSync (https://zksync.io/) will both launch and airdrop a native token by June 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Launching a token in this context can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the underlying application or protocol, and substantiated by the respective project via website or official social media channels. In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet, but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform.

Airdrop in this context means that a nonzero portion of this token’s supply must have been distributed for free to at least one subset of actors relevant to the underlying project, based on their retroactive, past participation in using the product or protocol, participating in the community, or some other non-transactional action that pertains to the underlying project. An airdrop is considered to have taken place if the aforementioned free token distribution occurs, regardless of lockups or restrictions on the ability to sell the airdropped token, as long as the underlying token itself is live as per the earlier definition.

If this project launches a token and performs an airdrop by June 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If one or both of the objectives are not met by the resolution date, the market resolves to “No”.

zkSync airdrop by June 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is smiling in his front-view mugshot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This mugshot will resolve based on the first front-view mugshot released after this market's inception; if no mugshot is released by April 30, 2023 ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and/or official information from law enforcement. Determination as to whether Mr. Trump is smiling in his mugshot will be made by this market's decentralized resolver, UMA.


Will Trump smile in his mugshot?

This is a market group on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will set the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after their monthly meetings.

Fed Interest Rates

Fed Interest Rates: May 2023

This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Coinbase 1 minute candles for USDT-USD for any 24 hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 30 Mar '23 12:00 and 30 Jun '23 23:59 in the ET timezone. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e. 0.97999 or lower). A 24h period of USDT below 98 cents that starts on the last day will count (e.g. 30 Jun '23 22:00 to 01 Jul '23 22:00).

The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the USDT-USD “High” prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/USDT-USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase USDT-USD. If Coinbase stops having the necessary USDT information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USDT was below 98 cents for 24h+ may be used to resolve this market.

Will $USDT depeg by June 30?

This is a market group on whether the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will have more than 30 full member states for any length of time before a certain date.

Will NATO expand by...?

This market will resolve to "United States" if Do Kwon is extradited to the United States.
This market will resolve to "South Korea" if Do Kwon is extradited to South Korea.

"Extradited" to a country means Do Kwon must be extradited and physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the country. 

This market will resolve to the country Do Kwon is extradited to first - if Do Kwon isn't extradited to either the United States or South Korea by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source will be official government sources from the United States and/or South Korea, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Will Do Kwon be extradited to the United States or South Korea?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once after February 14, 2023, and by April 1, 2023, (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.

For the purpose of this market's resolution, retweets do not count as a tweet.

Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.


Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by April 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Huobi, official representatives of Huobi (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET that Huobi is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy.

This market will also resolve to "Yes" if Huobi withdrawals for BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days (168 hours) in a row by March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this settlement criterion will be official information released by Huobi, official representatives of Huobi (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), and a consensus of credible reporting.

If neither of the above criteria are met, this market will resolve to "No".

Huobi withdrawals being suspended for a majority of users means that a majority of users are unable to withdraw their BTC and/or ETH from Huobi (E.g. If a majority of users are unable to withdraw their ETH from Huobi, it will satisfy the condition.)

If Huobi suspends withdrawals on a day in the last week of March (e.g. They halt token withdrawals on March 30, 2023, 4 PM ET), this market will not resolve until either: 1) withdrawals are reenabled before 7 full days (168 hours) pass, resulting in a "No" resolution; 2) 7 full days pass (March 30 - April 6, 2023, 4 PM ET) where withdrawals are suspended, resulting in a "Yes" resolution.


Will Huobi become insolvent by Mar 31, 2023?

This market will immediately resolve to “$1 first” if any Binance 1 minute candle for ARB/USDT between 2023/03/28 00:01 and 2023/12/31 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price of 1.0000 or lower before $ARB hits 2.0000.

This market will immediately resolve to “$2 first” if any Binance 1 minute candle for ARB/USDT between 2023/03/28 00:01 and 2023/12/31 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final “High” price of $2.0000 or higher before $ARB hits 1.0000.

If no Binance 1 minute candle for ARB/USDT between 2023/03/28 00:01 and 2023/12/31 23:59 (inclusive) in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price of 1.0000 or lower, or "High" price of 2.0000 or higher, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is https://www.binance.com, specifically the ARB/USDT “Low" and "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ARB_USDT?_from=markets&theme=dark&type=spot with “1m” and “Original” selected on the top bar.

To see the “Low” and "High" prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the respective values after “Low: ” and "High: " at the top of the chart.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ARB/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets. If Binance cannot be used as a price source anymore for ARB/USDT (e.g. the pair doesn't exist anymore), a consensus of credible liquid price sources will be used instead.

Will $ARB hit $1 or $2 first?

This is a market group over when Joe Biden will file to run for president.

Will Joe Biden file to run for president by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Binance.US announces it will remove the ability to open new spot positions for a majority of its listed assets by April 30, 2023 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Binance.US announces by April 30, 2023 that they will remove the ability to open new spot positions for a majority of its listed assets, the market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the removal occurs after that date.

Whether or not Binance.US continues to accept new accounts will have no bearing on this market's resolution. Outages due to maintenance or bugs will not suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” - it must be a deliberate announcement including removal of the ability to open new spot positions.

The primary resolution source will be information from Binance.US, Binance.US's legal representatives, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), and/or Brian Shroder, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Binance.US shut down by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Trabucco, former co-CEO of Alameda Research, is indicted on federal charges or otherwise formally charged with any federal crime by the United States of America between December 13, 2022 and March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that reporting of sealed charges before the resolution date will suffice to resolve the market to "Yes."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the federal government of the United States (from sources such as https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel, https://www.justice.gov/news), however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Will Sam Trabucco be federally charged by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon detonates anywhere in the world between January 30, 2023, and June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. 

This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. 

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is removed/unavailable to download from both the Apple app store and Google Play store in the United States by May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apple and the US Apple App Store, and Alphabet/Google and Google Play, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.