Traders assign a 74.5% implied probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's September dot plot and recent minutes indicating that most officials view additional tightening as appropriate by year-end to return inflation to the 2% target. The September hike to the 3.75-4.00% range, combined with sticky core inflation readings and resilient growth, has shifted the market-implied path higher despite softer September payrolls of just 29,000. Officials including Governor Waller have emphasized flexibility on timing but signaled that data-dependent hikes remain likely at the December 8-9 session, which includes updated projections, rather than the October 27-28 meeting. Weakening labor market signals introduce some uncertainty around the pace.