Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Jordan Bardella at 26.5% implied probability to win France's 2027 presidential election, reflecting National Rally's legislative gains and Marine Le Pen's legal troubles sidelining her candidacy amid an ongoing appeal of her conviction. Édouard Philippe trails closely at 18.5%, buoyed by his centrist appeal and potential to consolidate moderate right support post-Michel Barnier's fallen government and François Bayrou's recent appointment as prime minister. The race stays tight due to a fragmented field—leftists like Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 9.5%, rising figures like Raphaël Glucksmann, and scattered center-right options—amid Macron's lame-duck status and no clear frontrunner in early polls. Separation could emerge from Bayrou cabinet stability, 2025 budget battles, left-wing primaries, or RN leadership clarity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNext French Presidential Election
Next French Presidential Election
Jordan Bardella 27%
Édouard Philippe 19%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$14,986,508 Vol.
$14,986,508 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
27%

Édouard Philippe
19%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
8%

Dominique de Villepin
7%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Jean Castex
3%

Sarah Knafo
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

François Hollande
3%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

David Lisnard
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
Jordan Bardella 27%
Édouard Philippe 19%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 8%
$14,986,508 Vol.
$14,986,508 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
27%

Édouard Philippe
19%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
8%

Dominique de Villepin
7%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Jean Castex
3%

Sarah Knafo
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

François Hollande
3%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

David Lisnard
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Jordan Bardella at 26.5% implied probability to win France's 2027 presidential election, reflecting National Rally's legislative gains and Marine Le Pen's legal troubles sidelining her candidacy amid an ongoing appeal of her conviction. Édouard Philippe trails closely at 18.5%, buoyed by his centrist appeal and potential to consolidate moderate right support post-Michel Barnier's fallen government and François Bayrou's recent appointment as prime minister. The race stays tight due to a fragmented field—leftists like Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 9.5%, rising figures like Raphaël Glucksmann, and scattered center-right options—amid Macron's lame-duck status and no clear frontrunner in early polls. Separation could emerge from Bayrou cabinet stability, 2025 budget battles, left-wing primaries, or RN leadership clarity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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