With over 94% of precincts reporting from the March 17 Illinois Democratic Senate primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton holds a stable 7.1 percentage point lead over Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi—40.2% to 33.1%—driving trader consensus to price her 6–9% margin of victory at 98.1% on Polymarket. This reflects her upset surge from trailing in late polls, fueled by Gov. JB Pritzker's $10 million super PAC infusion (newly detailed in April FEC filings), strong Chicago turnout, and downstate gains that overcame Krishnamoorthi's ad spending edge. Absentee and provisional ballots remain, but uniform regional leads make shifts outside 6–9% unlikely without a major anomaly; certification is pending with no recounts filed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStratton 6–9% 98.1%
Stratton 9%+ 3.9%
Stratton 3–6% 1.8%
Krishnamoorthi 9%+ 1.0%
$23,607 Vol.
$23,607 Vol.
Mar 17, 2026
Krishnamoorthi 9%+
1%
Krishnamoorthi 6–9%
<1%
Krishnamoorthi 3–6%
<1%
Krishnamoorthi <3%
<1%
Stratton <3%
<1%
Stratton 3–6%
2%
Stratton 6–9%
98%
Stratton 9%+
4%
Other
1%
Stratton 6–9% 98.1%
Stratton 9%+ 3.9%
Stratton 3–6% 1.8%
Krishnamoorthi 9%+ 1.0%
$23,607 Vol.
$23,607 Vol.
Mar 17, 2026
Krishnamoorthi 9%+
$3,787 Vol.
1%
Krishnamoorthi 6–9%
$0 Vol.
<1%
Krishnamoorthi 3–6%
$1,872 Vol.
<1%
Krishnamoorthi <3%
$0 Vol.
<1%
Stratton <3%
$3,360 Vol.
<1%
Stratton 3–6%
$5,109 Vol.
2%
Stratton 6–9%
$5,255 Vol.
98%
Stratton 9%+
$2,241 Vol.
4%
Other
$1,984 Vol.
1%
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 94% of precincts reporting from the March 17 Illinois Democratic Senate primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton holds a stable 7.1 percentage point lead over Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi—40.2% to 33.1%—driving trader consensus to price her 6–9% margin of victory at 98.1% on Polymarket. This reflects her upset surge from trailing in late polls, fueled by Gov. JB Pritzker's $10 million super PAC infusion (newly detailed in April FEC filings), strong Chicago turnout, and downstate gains that overcame Krishnamoorthi's ad spending edge. Absentee and provisional ballots remain, but uniform regional leads make shifts outside 6–9% unlikely without a major anomaly; certification is pending with no recounts filed.
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Volume
$23,607End Date
Mar 17, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 94% of precincts reporting from the March 17 Illinois Democratic Senate primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton holds a stable 7.1 percentage point lead over Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi—40.2% to 33.1%—driving trader consensus to price her 6–9% margin of victory at 98.1% on Polymarket. This reflects her upset surge from trailing in late polls, fueled by Gov. JB Pritzker's $10 million super PAC infusion (newly detailed in April FEC filings), strong Chicago turnout, and downstate gains that overcame Krishnamoorthi's ad spending edge. Absentee and provisional ballots remain, but uniform regional leads make shifts outside 6–9% unlikely without a major anomaly; certification is pending with no recounts filed.
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$23,607End Date
Mar 17, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 94% of precincts reporting from the March 17 Illinois Democratic Senate primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton holds a stable 7.1 percentage point lead over Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi—40.2% to 33.1%—driving trader consensus to price her 6–9% margin of victory at 98.1% on Polymarket. This reflects her upset surge from trailing in late polls, fueled by Gov. JB Pritzker's $10 million super PAC infusion (newly detailed in April FEC filings), strong Chicago turnout, and downstate gains that overcame Krishnamoorthi's ad spending edge. Absentee and provisional ballots remain, but uniform regional leads make shifts outside 6–9% unlikely without a major anomaly; certification is pending with no recounts filed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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