United Russia's commanding 94.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its institutional dominance in Russia's mixed electoral system—half proportional lists, half single-mandate constituencies—where administrative resources historically secure supermajorities, as in 2021's 324 seats. Early April polls from FOM and VCIOM show the party leading vote intentions at 27-52%, well ahead of New People (up to 15%), KPRF (10-13%), LDPR (11-14%), and others under 7%, amid Kremlin preparations like leadership restructuring under Dmitry Medvedev, propaganda emphasizing social initiatives, and inclusion of Ukraine war veterans on party lists. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp economic downturn, high-profile scandals, or procedural irregularities boosting systemic opposition, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the September 18-20 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUnited Russia (ER) 94.8%
New People (NL) 3.3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
Rodina <1%
$1,137,271 Vol.
$1,137,271 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
95%
New People (NL)
3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
Rodina
1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
<1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%
United Russia (ER) 94.8%
New People (NL) 3.3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) <1%
Rodina <1%
$1,137,271 Vol.
$1,137,271 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$474,066 Vol.
95%
New People (NL)
$59,188 Vol.
3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$82,852 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$199,146 Vol.
1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$80,792 Vol.
<1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$32,271 Vol.
<1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$208,955 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 94.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its institutional dominance in Russia's mixed electoral system—half proportional lists, half single-mandate constituencies—where administrative resources historically secure supermajorities, as in 2021's 324 seats. Early April polls from FOM and VCIOM show the party leading vote intentions at 27-52%, well ahead of New People (up to 15%), KPRF (10-13%), LDPR (11-14%), and others under 7%, amid Kremlin preparations like leadership restructuring under Dmitry Medvedev, propaganda emphasizing social initiatives, and inclusion of Ukraine war veterans on party lists. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp economic downturn, high-profile scandals, or procedural irregularities boosting systemic opposition, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the September 18-20 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,137,271End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 94.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its institutional dominance in Russia's mixed electoral system—half proportional lists, half single-mandate constituencies—where administrative resources historically secure supermajorities, as in 2021's 324 seats. Early April polls from FOM and VCIOM show the party leading vote intentions at 27-52%, well ahead of New People (up to 15%), KPRF (10-13%), LDPR (11-14%), and others under 7%, amid Kremlin preparations like leadership restructuring under Dmitry Medvedev, propaganda emphasizing social initiatives, and inclusion of Ukraine war veterans on party lists. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp economic downturn, high-profile scandals, or procedural irregularities boosting systemic opposition, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the September 18-20 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$1,137,271End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's commanding 94.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its institutional dominance in Russia's mixed electoral system—half proportional lists, half single-mandate constituencies—where administrative resources historically secure supermajorities, as in 2021's 324 seats. Early April polls from FOM and VCIOM show the party leading vote intentions at 27-52%, well ahead of New People (up to 15%), KPRF (10-13%), LDPR (11-14%), and others under 7%, amid Kremlin preparations like leadership restructuring under Dmitry Medvedev, propaganda emphasizing social initiatives, and inclusion of Ukraine war veterans on party lists. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp economic downturn, high-profile scandals, or procedural irregularities boosting systemic opposition, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the September 18-20 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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