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Elections·Global Elections

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER) 70%

New People (NL) 20.6%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7.2%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.7%

Polymarket

$4,418,295 Vol.

United Russia (ER) 70%

New People (NL) 20.6%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7.2%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.7%

Polymarket

$4,418,295 Vol.

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United Russia (ER)

$1,233,036 Vol.

70%

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New People (NL)

$278,376 Vol.

21%

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Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$2,037,463 Vol.

7%

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Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

$256,529 Vol.

2%

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A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

$226,929 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Rodina

$196,195 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Civic Platform (GP)

$189,767 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus prices United Russia at 69.5% to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, driven by recent FOM and WCIOM polls projecting it 210–286 seats out of 450 via the mixed system of 225 proportional list seats (5% threshold) and 225 single-member constituencies, where it dominates amid Kremlin support. New People follows at 20.5% implied probability for second place, boosted by gains to 7–14% in March polls like WCIOM's latest (March 22), positioning it for 45–74 seats as a rising centrist-liberal force. LDPR (7.1%) and KPRF (1.7%) trail with stable 10–13% list support but fewer projected seats; others lag below 1%. Economic pressures like rising prices have softened United Russia's list ratings since February, prompting Kremlin propaganda pushes, though no major shifts in the past week.

Trader consensus prices United Russia at 69.5% to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, driven by recent FOM and WCIOM polls projecting it 210–286 seats out of 450 via the mixed system of 225 proportional list seats (5% threshold) and 225 single-member constituencies, where it dominates amid Kremlin support. New People follows at 20.5% implied probability for second place, boosted by gains to 7–14% in March polls like WCIOM's latest (March 22), positioning it for 45–74 seats as a rising centrist-liberal force. LDPR (7.1%) and KPRF (1.7%) trail with stable 10–13% list support but fewer projected seats; others lag below 1%. Economic pressures like rising prices have softened United Russia's list ratings since February, prompting Kremlin propaganda pushes, though no major shifts in the past week.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus prices United Russia at 69.5% to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, driven by recent FOM and WCIOM polls projecting it 210–286 seats out of 450 via the mixed system of 225 proportional list seats (5% threshold) and 225 single-member constituencies, where it dominates amid Kremlin support. New People follows at 20.5% implied probability for second place, boosted by gains to 7–14% in March polls like WCIOM's latest (March 22), positioning it for 45–74 seats as a rising centrist-liberal force. LDPR (7.1%) and KPRF (1.7%) trail with stable 10–13% list support but fewer projected seats; others lag below 1%. Economic pressures like rising prices have softened United Russia's list ratings since February, prompting Kremlin propaganda pushes, though no major shifts in the past week.

Trader consensus prices United Russia at 69.5% to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, driven by recent FOM and WCIOM polls projecting it 210–286 seats out of 450 via the mixed system of 225 proportional list seats (5% threshold) and 225 single-member constituencies, where it dominates amid Kremlin support. New People follows at 20.5% implied probability for second place, boosted by gains to 7–14% in March polls like WCIOM's latest (March 22), positioning it for 45–74 seats as a rising centrist-liberal force. LDPR (7.1%) and KPRF (1.7%) trail with stable 10–13% list support but fewer projected seats; others lag below 1%. Economic pressures like rising prices have softened United Russia's list ratings since February, prompting Kremlin propaganda pushes, though no major shifts in the past week.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "United Russia (ER)" at 70%, followed by "New People (NL)" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" has generated $4.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" is "United Russia (ER)" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "New People (NL)" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.