Trader consensus favors CDU as the leading contender for the largest share in Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting consistent poll advantages around 19-21% amid a tight race under proportional representation. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU benefits from national momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz and incumbency edge, while governing partner SPD slips to 14-17% amid voter fatigue. Late April Infratest dimap polling showed a four-way dead heat at 18-19% among CDU, Grüne, Linke, and AfD, lifting odds for challengers as Grüne and Linke gained ground on progressive issues. No absolute majority likely, necessitating coalition negotiations; AfD's surge tests cordon sanitaire barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMost recent poll puts Greens at 20 % in Berlin, stabilising the market at its current level
Grüne rises to 20%4%
Most recent poll puts Greens at 20 % in Berlin, stabilising the market at its current level
Grokipedia notes that Linke’s mayoral candidate Katrin Göring-Eckardt holds a televised town‑hall meeting, lifting its poll to 14 % and the market
Linke jumps to 23%10%
Grokipedia notes that Linke’s mayoral candidate Katrin Göring-Eckardt holds a televised town‑hall meeting, lifting its poll to 14 % and the market
April poll shows Greens recovering to 16 % in Berlin, nudging the market upward
Grüne rises to 16%3%
April poll shows Greens recovering to 16 % in Berlin, nudging the market upward
A late‑April poll shows Linke at a new low of 9 % as voters focus on security issues;
Linke rises to 13%1%
the market rebounds 5 % to 13 % after the party announces a coalition‑talks initiative with the Greens
New Infratest Dimap poll shows Berlin CDU support dropping to 19%, reflecting public dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition and a scandal involving a CDU-affiliated senator
CDU drops to 45%9%
New Infratest Dimap poll shows Berlin CDU support dropping to 19%, reflecting public dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition and a scandal involving a CDU-affiliated senator
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as mayor of Berlin after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU's leadership role in Berlin government
CDU dips to 54%2%
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as mayor of Berlin after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU's leadership role in Berlin government
BSW Berlin adopts election program for the 2026 Berlin state election, emphasizing peace, economy, and social justice
Despite formalizing its program and nominating Alexander King as lead candidate, BSW remained in a weak position in Berlin polls, with
INSA poll shows AfD rising to a record 28% while SPD holds steady at 14%, underscoring the growing strength of right-wing opposition and the challenge for SPD to regain momentum
SPD rises to 8%1%
INSA poll shows AfD rising to a record 28% while SPD holds steady at 14%, underscoring the growing strength of right-wing opposition and the challenge for SPD to regain momentum in Berlin
YouGov poll reveals AfD as the most popular party nationally at 27%, with SPD support down to 13%, indicating a shift in voter preferences away from SPD and increasing uncertainty
SPD dips to 6%1%
YouGov poll reveals AfD as the most popular party nationally at 27%, with SPD support down to 13%, indicating a shift in voter preferences away from SPD and increasing uncertainty about SPD's chances in Berlin
YouGov poll reveals AfD as the most popular party nationwide with 27%, driven by dissatisfaction with Chancellor Merz’s government, increasing AfD’s perceived chances in Berlin
AfD rises to 12%1%
YouGov poll reveals AfD as the most popular party nationwide with 27%, driven by dissatisfaction with Chancellor Merz’s government, increasing AfD’s perceived chances in Berlin elections
Follow‑up poll drops Greens back to 5 % in Berlin, causing a rapid
Grüne drops to 5%6%
Follow‑up poll drops Greens back to 5 % in Berlin, causing a rapid
North Rhine-Westphalia state election polls show AfD at 19%, with the party facing harsh measures from SPD-led government, reflecting both rising support and political pushback
AfD dips to 12%1%
North Rhine-Westphalia state election polls show AfD at 19%, with the party facing harsh measures from SPD-led government, reflecting both rising support and political pushback that could influence Berlin voters
Latest poll places Greens at 11 % in Berlin, supporting a brief
Grüne rises to 11%2%
Latest poll places Greens at 11 % in Berlin, supporting a brief
State election in Baden-Württemberg shows AfD polling strongly at 21%, indicating rising support in western Germany and boosting expectations for AfD’s performance in upcoming
AfD rises to 13%2%
State election in Baden-Württemberg shows AfD polling strongly at 21%, indicating rising support in western Germany and boosting expectations for AfD’s performance in upcoming elections including Berlin
Linke releases a detailed climate‑justice manifesto;
Linke dips to 12%2%
a 10 Feb poll shows a modest rise to 13 %, but the market only climbs 5 % to 12 % on 8 Mar
Mid‑march poll shows Greens climbing to 8 % in Berlin, lifting market odds
Grüne rises to 8%1%
Mid‑march poll shows Greens climbing to 8 % in Berlin, lifting market odds
SPD and CDU in Berlin vote to begin negotiations for a grand coalition, signaling potential stability in Berlin government and improving CDU's election outlook
CDU jumps to 64%7%
SPD and CDU in Berlin vote to begin negotiations for a grand coalition, signaling potential stability in Berlin government and improving CDU's election outlook
Polls show SPD support at historic lows nationally, with YouGov reporting only 13% support amid widespread dissatisfaction with the federal coalition government, pressuring SPD's
SPD dips to 5%1%
Polls show SPD support at historic lows nationally, with YouGov reporting only 13% support amid widespread dissatisfaction with the federal coalition government, pressuring SPD's perceived electability in Berlin
A PolitPro poll on 14 Feb shows Linke falling to 11 % as the AfD gains momentum;
Linke drops to 22%11%
the market slides 11 points to 22 %
CDU regains some ground after clarifications on coalition intentions and internal party unity statements, stabilizing market confidence
CDU jumps to 54%6%
CDU regains some ground after clarifications on coalition intentions and internal party unity statements, stabilizing market confidence
AfD supporters’ gun rights secretly curtailed in Saxony under a secret decree due to the party’s extremist classification, highlighting legal and political pressures on AfD
AfD rises to 11%4%
AfD supporters’ gun rights secretly curtailed in Saxony under a secret decree due to the party’s extremist classification, highlighting legal and political pressures on AfD members that may dampen voter confidence
Grokipedia reports Linke’s participation in a high‑profile protest against rent hikes, which lifts its poll to 19 % in the 7 Feb poll;
Linke surges to 33%16%
the market jumps to 33 % the next day
CDU achieves a peak in polling after strong performance in state elections and federal positioning, boosting confidence in Berlin election prospects
CDU jumps to 64%5%
CDU achieves a peak in polling after strong performance in state elections and federal positioning, boosting confidence in Berlin election prospects
SPD suffers a poor showing in Baden-Württemberg state election with only 5.5% of the vote, reflecting weakening support in key regions and contributing to negative market
SPD dips to 5%2%
SPD suffers a poor showing in Baden-Württemberg state election with only 5.5% of the vote, reflecting weakening support in key regions and contributing to negative market sentiment for SPD's Berlin prospects
A new PolitPro poll shows Linke dropping to 12 % amid a surge for the CDU;
Linke drops to 17%6%
the market rebounds sharply to 17 % as traders anticipate a possible left‑wing coalition
New poll indicates a modest rise for the Greens to 14 % in Berlin, prompting a short‑term
Grüne jumps to 14%10%
New poll indicates a modest rise for the Greens to 14 % in Berlin, prompting a short‑term
Linke’s candidate selection conference in Berlin announces former Bundestag member Sarah Wagenknecht as the lead candidate, lifting its poll to 16 % and the market
Linke dips to 23%2%
Linke’s candidate selection conference in Berlin announces former Bundestag member Sarah Wagenknecht as the lead candidate, lifting its poll to 16 % and the market
Nationwide poll by GMS shows AfD leading with 27%, a record lead over CDU, signaling growing national support but mixed implications for Berlin where AfD remains less dominant
AfD rises to 7%1%
Nationwide poll by GMS shows AfD leading with 27%, a record lead over CDU, signaling growing national support but mixed implications for Berlin where AfD remains less dominant
Deputy Minister-President Robert Crumbach and other BSW ministers leave the party amid coalition disputes in Brandenburg
High-profile defections from BSW in government weakened the party's image and organizational strength, reinforcing market skepticism about BSW's electoral prospects in Berlin.
End‑of‑year poll release confirms Greens at 4 % support in Berlin, reinforcing the market’s low valuation
End‑of‑year poll release confirms Greens at 4 % support in Berlin, reinforcing the market’s low valuation
The same poll series reports Linke at 14 % on 30 Dec, prompting a further slide to 25 %
Linke dips to 25%1%
The same poll series reports Linke at 14 % on 30 Dec, prompting a further slide to 25 %
A PolitPro poll released on 23 Dec shows Linke slipping back to 15 % as the Greens surge to 17 %;
Linke dips to 26%2%
the market reacts with a modest decline to 26 %
SPD candidate Uta Francisco dos Santos withdraws from Berlin Mitte mayoral race amid controversy over campaigning during sick leave, raising concerns about SPD's internal
SPD dips to 6%2%
SPD candidate Uta Francisco dos Santos withdraws from Berlin Mitte mayoral race amid controversy over campaigning during sick leave, raising concerns about SPD's internal discipline and public image in Berlin
CDU secures 208 seats in the 2025 Federal Election, becoming the largest party but without a majority, ruling out coalition with AfD and turning to SPD for government formation
CDU dips to 59%2%
CDU secures 208 seats in the 2025 Federal Election, becoming the largest party but without a majority, ruling out coalition with AfD and turning to SPD for government formation
Grokipedia notes that Linke’s internal campaign office announced a new “Housing Justice” platform, temporarily lifting its poll to 18 % in a mid‑month survey and pushing the market
Linke jumps to 28%7%
Grokipedia notes that Linke’s internal campaign office announced a new “Housing Justice” platform, temporarily lifting its poll to 18 % in a mid‑month survey and pushing the market
Berlin Constitutional Court invalidates 2021 Berlin state election results due to irregularities, ordering a repeat election by February 2023;
AfD plunges to 6%44%
this maintained the status quo and limited AfD's immediate gains in Berlin
SPD Chairman Lars Klingbeil calls on CDU/CSU opposition to support urgent economic relief measures amid rising energy
SPD plunges to 12%38%
SPD Chairman Lars Klingbeil calls on CDU/CSU opposition to support urgent economic relief measures amid rising energy
A second PolitPro poll reports Linke’s share falling to 13 %, widening the gap to the CDU (20 %) and AfD (17 %); traders cut the
A second PolitPro poll reports Linke’s share falling to 13 %, widening the gap to the CDU (20 %) and AfD (17 %); traders cut the
Sahra Wagenknecht nominated as chancellor candidate by the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), highlighting fragmentation on the left and complicating coalition dynamics for CDU-led
CDU jumps to 65%7%
Sahra Wagenknecht nominated as chancellor candidate by the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), highlighting fragmentation on the left and complicating coalition dynamics for CDU-led alliances
Berlin poll shows Greens fall to third place behind CDU and SPD, triggering a sharp drop in market confidence
Grüne plunges to 1%49%
Berlin poll shows Greens fall to third place behind CDU and SPD, triggering a sharp drop in market confidence
PolitPro’s first weekly poll for the 2026 Berlin election shows Die Linke at 16 % – the lowest level since the campaign began, sparking a drop from 50 % to about 21 % on the market
Linke plunges to 21%29%
PolitPro’s first weekly poll for the 2026 Berlin election shows Die Linke at 16 % – the lowest level since the campaign began, sparking a drop from 50 % to about 21 % on the market
Sahra Wagenknecht announces resignation as BSW party chair, signaling leadership transition
Wagenknecht stepped down as party leader but remained active in a new role. This leadership change amid internal restructuring likely contributed to the sustained low market
BSW narrowly fails to pass 5% threshold in the 2025 German federal election, winning no Bundestag seats
Despite polling over 7% earlier, BSW received 4.9% of the vote, falling short of parliamentary representation. This failure significantly reduced market confidence in BSW's electoral strength, causing the
BSW achieves third place in Saxony and Thuringia state elections, positioning itself as a potential coalition partner in these states
The BSW, newly launched earlier in 2024, performed well in these state elections, signaling initial momentum. However, this did not translate into sustained confidence for Berlin, as the market
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