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icon for Berlin State Election: 4th Place
Elections·Germany

Berlin State Election: 4th Place

icon for Berlin State Election: 4th Place
Elections·Germany

Berlin State Election: 4th Place

Grüne 38%

AfD 15%

CDU 13%

Linke 12%

Polymarket
NEW

Grüne 38%

AfD 15%

CDU 13%

Linke 12%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Grüne

Grüne

$1,493 Vol.

38%

icon for AfD

AfD

$36 Vol.

15%

icon for CDU

CDU

$36 Vol.

13%

icon for Linke

Linke

$110 Vol.

12%

icon for SPD

SPD

$36 Vol.

7%

icon for FDP

FDP

$99 Vol.

5%

icon for BSW

BSW

$51 Vol.

4%

icon for FW

FW

$84 Vol.

11%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) The tight polling averages among Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD keep the contest for fourth place fluid ahead of the September 20 Berlin House of Representatives election. Recent surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap show these parties clustered between roughly 12 and 22 percent, with Linke and CDU trading narrow leads while AfD and Grüne sit close behind; minor shifts in turnout among urban voters or late swings on state issues such as housing and energy policy could reorder the middle of the pack. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing Grüne highest for fourth place while assigning meaningful probability to AfD, CDU, and Linke finishing in that spot depending on final-weekend movements.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,943
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) The tight polling averages among Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD keep the contest for fourth place fluid ahead of the September 20 Berlin House of Representatives election. Recent surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap show these parties clustered between roughly 12 and 22 percent, with Linke and CDU trading narrow leads while AfD and Grüne sit close behind; minor shifts in turnout among urban voters or late swings on state issues such as housing and energy policy could reorder the middle of the pack. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing Grüne highest for fourth place while assigning meaningful probability to AfD, CDU, and Linke finishing in that spot depending on final-weekend movements.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,943
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Related

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icon for Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

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icon for Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Berlin State Election: 4th Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Grüne" at 38%, followed by "AfD" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Berlin State Election: 4th Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Berlin State Election: 4th Place," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Berlin State Election: 4th Place" is "Grüne" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "AfD" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Berlin State Election: 4th Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.