Recent polling trends and the final certified results from the September 20, 2026 Landtag election placed the BSW vote share at 4.8 percent, reflecting its first statewide contest and limited organizational reach in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. A polarized campaign dominated by the AfD-SPD contest squeezed smaller parties, while perceptions of internal BSW disputes and competition for protest votes from the Left and others capped support near the five-percent threshold. Pre-election surveys from multiple institutes consistently showed the party between three and six percent in the final weeks, aligning with the outcome. Late swings in turnout or regional pockets of strength could have altered the margin, yet the tallies confirmed the 3-5 percent band as the decisive range.