Recent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the AfD at 17–18 percent, roughly double its 9.1 percent result from the 2023 repeat vote and placing it in a tight three-way contest with the Linke and CDU. This surge aligns with the party’s strong national momentum following its 44 percent victory in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, which appears to have boosted turnout and consolidation among its voters in the capital. Consistent survey results from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA in early September underpin trader expectations for roughly 32–36 seats under the proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. Other parties remain fragmented, with the SPD and smaller lists struggling below or near the 5 percent threshold, while the established firewall against AfD coalitions limits its governing prospects but does not cap its seat total. With one week until voting, late shifts in participation or preference could still alter the final distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated35+ 36.8%
32-34 25%
29-31 21%
26-28 16%
$55,218 Vol.
$55,218 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<20
1%
20-22
2%
23-25
3%
26-28
16%
29-31
21%
32-34
25%
35+
37%
35+ 36.8%
32-34 25%
29-31 21%
26-28 16%
$55,218 Vol.
$55,218 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$3,033 Vol.
1%
20-22
$6,984 Vol.
2%
23-25
$3,448 Vol.
3%
26-28
$4,557 Vol.
16%
29-31
$4,727 Vol.
21%
32-34
$5,042 Vol.
25%
35+
$27,427 Vol.
37%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the AfD at 17–18 percent, roughly double its 9.1 percent result from the 2023 repeat vote and placing it in a tight three-way contest with the Linke and CDU. This surge aligns with the party’s strong national momentum following its 44 percent victory in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, which appears to have boosted turnout and consolidation among its voters in the capital. Consistent survey results from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA in early September underpin trader expectations for roughly 32–36 seats under the proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. Other parties remain fragmented, with the SPD and smaller lists struggling below or near the 5 percent threshold, while the established firewall against AfD coalitions limits its governing prospects but does not cap its seat total. With one week until voting, late shifts in participation or preference could still alter the final distribution.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$55,218End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the AfD at 17–18 percent, roughly double its 9.1 percent result from the 2023 repeat vote and placing it in a tight three-way contest with the Linke and CDU. This surge aligns with the party’s strong national momentum following its 44 percent victory in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, which appears to have boosted turnout and consolidation among its voters in the capital. Consistent survey results from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA in early September underpin trader expectations for roughly 32–36 seats under the proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. Other parties remain fragmented, with the SPD and smaller lists struggling below or near the 5 percent threshold, while the established firewall against AfD coalitions limits its governing prospects but does not cap its seat total. With one week until voting, late shifts in participation or preference could still alter the final distribution.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$55,218End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the AfD at 17–18 percent, roughly double its 9.1 percent result from the 2023 repeat vote and placing it in a tight three-way contest with the Linke and CDU. This surge aligns with the party’s strong national momentum following its 44 percent victory in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, which appears to have boosted turnout and consolidation among its voters in the capital. Consistent survey results from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA in early September underpin trader expectations for roughly 32–36 seats under the proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. Other parties remain fragmented, with the SPD and smaller lists struggling below or near the 5 percent threshold, while the established firewall against AfD coalitions limits its governing prospects but does not cap its seat total. With one week until voting, late shifts in participation or preference could still alter the final distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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