The 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on 20 September produced a BSW result of 4.8 percent, below the 5 percent electoral threshold required for Landtag seats. Pre-election surveys from multiple institutes, including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA, placed the party between 3 and 5 percent in the final weeks, reflecting limited regional support and competition from established left-leaning options such as Die Linke. The completed ballot count aligns with these trends and the party's performance in prior eastern state contests. Trader consensus at 100 percent for under 5 percent rests on the verified preliminary tallies and absence of significant late swings. Remaining uncertainty is limited to minor adjustments from final certification or localized recounts, though these are unlikely to alter the statewide outcome given the margin below the threshold.