Recent polling averages placed the AfD at 17-18% ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, nearly doubling its 9.1% share from 2023 and reflecting sustained gains from voter concerns over immigration, energy costs, and housing shortages. These trends aligned with the party's stronger performance in eastern districts and national momentum seen in concurrent state votes. The September 20 results confirmed 16.3%, locking the 14-17% band as the decisive range. Late shifts from final tallies or turnout anomalies in specific boroughs remain the main variables that could push the share marginally outside this interval.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14-17% 100.0%
17-20% 1.6%
<14% <1%
20%+ <1%
$49,055 Vol.
$49,055 Vol.
<14%
No
14-17%
Yes
17-20%
No
20%+
No
14-17% 100.0%
17-20% 1.6%
<14% <1%
20%+ <1%
$49,055 Vol.
$49,055 Vol.
<14%
No
14-17%
Yes
17-20%
No
20%+
No
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent polling averages placed the AfD at 17-18% ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, nearly doubling its 9.1% share from 2023 and reflecting sustained gains from voter concerns over immigration, energy costs, and housing shortages. These trends aligned with the party's stronger performance in eastern districts and national momentum seen in concurrent state votes. The September 20 results confirmed 16.3%, locking the 14-17% band as the decisive range. Late shifts from final tallies or turnout anomalies in specific boroughs remain the main variables that could push the share marginally outside this interval.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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