AfD holds commanding trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl on September 29, fueled by consistent polling leads of 8-12 points over the long-ruling SPD in surveys from the past week, such as Forschunggruppe Wahlen's September readout showing AfD at 31%, SPD at 22%, CDU at 15%, and BSW at 13%. Eastern Germany's rural and working-class voters, frustrated by federal migration policies and economic stagnation, have propelled AfD's sustained dominance despite a cordon sanitaire barring coalitions. SPD lingers at 11.5% amid incumbency fatigue after 26 years governing the state parliament, with no late momentum for challengers like CDU or surging BSW ahead of the Superwahlsonntag alongside Saxony and Thuringia polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD 85%
SPD 12%
CDU 1.3%
Linke <1%
$124,559 Vol.
$124,559 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
85%
SPD
12%
CDU
1%
Linke
1%
Grüne
1%
FDP
1%
BSW
<1%
FW
<1%
AfD 85%
SPD 12%
CDU 1.3%
Linke <1%
$124,559 Vol.
$124,559 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$0 Vol.
85%
SPD
$32,358 Vol.
12%
CDU
$24,936 Vol.
1%
Linke
$0 Vol.
1%
Grüne
$36,390 Vol.
1%
FDP
$30,875 Vol.
1%
BSW
$0 Vol.
<1%
FW
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD holds commanding trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl on September 29, fueled by consistent polling leads of 8-12 points over the long-ruling SPD in surveys from the past week, such as Forschunggruppe Wahlen's September readout showing AfD at 31%, SPD at 22%, CDU at 15%, and BSW at 13%. Eastern Germany's rural and working-class voters, frustrated by federal migration policies and economic stagnation, have propelled AfD's sustained dominance despite a cordon sanitaire barring coalitions. SPD lingers at 11.5% amid incumbency fatigue after 26 years governing the state parliament, with no late momentum for challengers like CDU or surging BSW ahead of the Superwahlsonntag alongside Saxony and Thuringia polls.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$124,559End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD holds commanding trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl on September 29, fueled by consistent polling leads of 8-12 points over the long-ruling SPD in surveys from the past week, such as Forschunggruppe Wahlen's September readout showing AfD at 31%, SPD at 22%, CDU at 15%, and BSW at 13%. Eastern Germany's rural and working-class voters, frustrated by federal migration policies and economic stagnation, have propelled AfD's sustained dominance despite a cordon sanitaire barring coalitions. SPD lingers at 11.5% amid incumbency fatigue after 26 years governing the state parliament, with no late momentum for challengers like CDU or surging BSW ahead of the Superwahlsonntag alongside Saxony and Thuringia polls.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$124,559End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...AfD holds commanding trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl on September 29, fueled by consistent polling leads of 8-12 points over the long-ruling SPD in surveys from the past week, such as Forschunggruppe Wahlen's September readout showing AfD at 31%, SPD at 22%, CDU at 15%, and BSW at 13%. Eastern Germany's rural and working-class voters, frustrated by federal migration policies and economic stagnation, have propelled AfD's sustained dominance despite a cordon sanitaire barring coalitions. SPD lingers at 11.5% amid incumbency fatigue after 26 years governing the state parliament, with no late momentum for challengers like CDU or surging BSW ahead of the Superwahlsonntag alongside Saxony and Thuringia polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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