Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors "Down" at 52.5% for Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) seat projections, reflecting 338Canada's April 5 update showing 205 mean seats versus 208 on March 29, amid tightening contests in Quebec and British Columbia where Bloc Québécois and Conservatives gained marginal ground. This modest decline follows a winter surge lifting LPC from 169 post-2025 election seats to majority territory, driven by strong Ontario and Atlantic polling, but recent Léger and Liaison data signal a potential plateau. The close odds highlight polling volatility in swing ridings and discrepancies with other models like Poliwave (230 seats); fresh polls, byelection results on April 13, or regional shifts could tip toward rebound or further softening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLiberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
Up
$29 Vol.
$29 Vol.
Up
$29 Vol.
$29 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors "Down" at 52.5% for Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) seat projections, reflecting 338Canada's April 5 update showing 205 mean seats versus 208 on March 29, amid tightening contests in Quebec and British Columbia where Bloc Québécois and Conservatives gained marginal ground. This modest decline follows a winter surge lifting LPC from 169 post-2025 election seats to majority territory, driven by strong Ontario and Atlantic polling, but recent Léger and Liaison data signal a potential plateau. The close odds highlight polling volatility in swing ridings and discrepancies with other models like Poliwave (230 seats); fresh polls, byelection results on April 13, or regional shifts could tip toward rebound or further softening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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