With Hungary's parliamentary election one week away on April 12, trader consensus prices Péter Magyar's TISZA party at 68.5% to secure the most seats, reflecting sustained polling leads over Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP coalition. Late March surveys, including Medián's 58%-35% and 21 Kutatóközpont's 56%-37% among decided voters, show TISZA widening its advantage amid voter momentum for change after 16 years of Fidesz dominance. Hungary's mixed system—106 single-member districts favoring incumbents and 93 proportional seats—positions battleground races and turnout as key deciders, while minor parties like DK, MSZP, and Momentum trail far behind. Fidesz retains 31.5% implied probability due to organizational strengths and gerrymandering claims, but polls drive the lopsided odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
TISZA 69%
Fidesz-KDNP 32%
LMP <1%
Jobbik <1%
$57,022,862 Vol.
$57,022,862 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
69%
Fidesz-KDNP
32%
LMP
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
DK
<1%
MSZP
<1%
Momentum
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
KDNP
<1%
TISZA 69%
Fidesz-KDNP 32%
LMP <1%
Jobbik <1%
$57,022,862 Vol.
$57,022,862 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
$1,667,591 Vol.
69%
Fidesz-KDNP
$1,843,918 Vol.
32%
LMP
$14,989,538 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$16,539,646 Vol.
<1%
DK
$7,602,345 Vol.
<1%
MSZP
$485,974 Vol.
<1%
Momentum
$958,693 Vol.
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$1,285,886 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$7,129,663 Vol.
<1%
KDNP
$4,519,612 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election one week away on April 12, trader consensus prices Péter Magyar's TISZA party at 68.5% to secure the most seats, reflecting sustained polling leads over Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP coalition. Late March surveys, including Medián's 58%-35% and 21 Kutatóközpont's 56%-37% among decided voters, show TISZA widening its advantage amid voter momentum for change after 16 years of Fidesz dominance. Hungary's mixed system—106 single-member districts favoring incumbents and 93 proportional seats—positions battleground races and turnout as key deciders, while minor parties like DK, MSZP, and Momentum trail far behind. Fidesz retains 31.5% implied probability due to organizational strengths and gerrymandering claims, but polls drive the lopsided odds.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET
Volume
$57,022,862End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election one week away on April 12, trader consensus prices Péter Magyar's TISZA party at 68.5% to secure the most seats, reflecting sustained polling leads over Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP coalition. Late March surveys, including Medián's 58%-35% and 21 Kutatóközpont's 56%-37% among decided voters, show TISZA widening its advantage amid voter momentum for change after 16 years of Fidesz dominance. Hungary's mixed system—106 single-member districts favoring incumbents and 93 proportional seats—positions battleground races and turnout as key deciders, while minor parties like DK, MSZP, and Momentum trail far behind. Fidesz retains 31.5% implied probability due to organizational strengths and gerrymandering claims, but polls drive the lopsided odds.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volume
$57,022,862End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Hungary's parliamentary election one week away on April 12, trader consensus prices Péter Magyar's TISZA party at 68.5% to secure the most seats, reflecting sustained polling leads over Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP coalition. Late March surveys, including Medián's 58%-35% and 21 Kutatóközpont's 56%-37% among decided voters, show TISZA widening its advantage amid voter momentum for change after 16 years of Fidesz dominance. Hungary's mixed system—106 single-member districts favoring incumbents and 93 proportional seats—positions battleground races and turnout as key deciders, while minor parties like DK, MSZP, and Momentum trail far behind. Fidesz retains 31.5% implied probability due to organizational strengths and gerrymandering claims, but polls drive the lopsided odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
69%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
77%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
97%
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