Progressive Bulgaria (PB) commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability to win the most seats in Bulgaria's snap parliamentary election on April 19, driven by consistent polling leads in recent surveys like Alpha Research (March 26–April 2, PB at 30.8%) and Sova Harris (31%), projecting 86–95 seats out of 240 under proportional representation. This surge stems from former President Rumen Radev's new PB party capitalizing on anti-corruption protests that forced the incumbent GERB–SDS government's resignation in December 2025, eroding support for established parties amid eight elections in five years. While historical polling accuracy in Bulgaria's fragmented field supports this positioning, late momentum shifts, higher turnout favoring incumbents, scandals, or discrepancies between vote share and seat allocation could challenge PB's plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPB 92.5%
GERB–SDS 6.3%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$88,093 Vol.
$88,093 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB
92%
GERB–SDS
6%
PP–DB
1%
ITN
<1%
Velichie
<1%
APS
<1%
BSP-United Left
<1%
MECH
<1%
Vazrazhdane
<1%
DPS
<1%
PB 92.5%
GERB–SDS 6.3%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$88,093 Vol.
$88,093 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
PB
$21,649 Vol.
92%
GERB–SDS
$9,323 Vol.
6%
PP–DB
$9,476 Vol.
1%
ITN
$7,950 Vol.
<1%
Velichie
$7,202 Vol.
<1%
APS
$7,209 Vol.
<1%
BSP-United Left
$6,764 Vol.
<1%
MECH
$8,025 Vol.
<1%
Vazrazhdane
$6,242 Vol.
<1%
DPS
$4,252 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB) commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability to win the most seats in Bulgaria's snap parliamentary election on April 19, driven by consistent polling leads in recent surveys like Alpha Research (March 26–April 2, PB at 30.8%) and Sova Harris (31%), projecting 86–95 seats out of 240 under proportional representation. This surge stems from former President Rumen Radev's new PB party capitalizing on anti-corruption protests that forced the incumbent GERB–SDS government's resignation in December 2025, eroding support for established parties amid eight elections in five years. While historical polling accuracy in Bulgaria's fragmented field supports this positioning, late momentum shifts, higher turnout favoring incumbents, scandals, or discrepancies between vote share and seat allocation could challenge PB's plurality.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Volume
$88,093End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Progressive Bulgaria (PB) commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability to win the most seats in Bulgaria's snap parliamentary election on April 19, driven by consistent polling leads in recent surveys like Alpha Research (March 26–April 2, PB at 30.8%) and Sova Harris (31%), projecting 86–95 seats out of 240 under proportional representation. This surge stems from former President Rumen Radev's new PB party capitalizing on anti-corruption protests that forced the incumbent GERB–SDS government's resignation in December 2025, eroding support for established parties amid eight elections in five years. While historical polling accuracy in Bulgaria's fragmented field supports this positioning, late momentum shifts, higher turnout favoring incumbents, scandals, or discrepancies between vote share and seat allocation could challenge PB's plurality.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$88,093End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB) commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability to win the most seats in Bulgaria's snap parliamentary election on April 19, driven by consistent polling leads in recent surveys like Alpha Research (March 26–April 2, PB at 30.8%) and Sova Harris (31%), projecting 86–95 seats out of 240 under proportional representation. This surge stems from former President Rumen Radev's new PB party capitalizing on anti-corruption protests that forced the incumbent GERB–SDS government's resignation in December 2025, eroding support for established parties amid eight elections in five years. While historical polling accuracy in Bulgaria's fragmented field supports this positioning, late momentum shifts, higher turnout favoring incumbents, scandals, or discrepancies between vote share and seat allocation could challenge PB's plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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