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Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Daniel Ennis 76%

Janice Boylan 7.0%

Ray McAdam 4.2%

Gerry Hutch 3.6%

Polymarket

$773,807 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 76%

Janice Boylan 7.0%

Ray McAdam 4.2%

Gerry Hutch 3.6%

Polymarket

$773,807 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$10,602 Vol.

76%

Janice Boylan

$5,598 Vol.

7%

Ray McAdam

$4,380 Vol.

4%

Gerry Hutch

$494,090 Vol.

4%

John Stephens

$75,919 Vol.

8%

Gillian Sherratt

$118,427 Vol.

1%

Janet Horner

$3,117 Vol.

<1%

Malachy Steenson

$13,224 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$3,247 Vol.

<1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$5,765 Vol.

<1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$36,410 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$3,028 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus strongly favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 76% implied probability to win the Dublin Central by-election, driven by reports of positive canvassing reception on housing and cost-of-living issues, alongside simulations projecting his victory in this traditionally independent-leaning Dáil constituency amid Sinn Féin's national vote decline since 2024. Fianna Fáil's recent selection of first-time councillor John Stephens last week lifted him to second at 8%, capitalizing on local roots, while Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan at 7% faces intense pressure as a test for party leader Mary Lou McDonald in her home patch. Fine Gael Lord Mayor Ray McAdam trails at 4.5%, with independents like Gerry Hutch at 3.6% hampered by prior polling rejection. The contest, expected late May, hinges on transfers and turnout in this four-seat area.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$773,807
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus strongly favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 76% implied probability to win the Dublin Central by-election, driven by reports of positive canvassing reception on housing and cost-of-living issues, alongside simulations projecting his victory in this traditionally independent-leaning Dáil constituency amid Sinn Féin's national vote decline since 2024. Fianna Fáil's recent selection of first-time councillor John Stephens last week lifted him to second at 8%, capitalizing on local roots, while Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan at 7% faces intense pressure as a test for party leader Mary Lou McDonald in her home patch. Fine Gael Lord Mayor Ray McAdam trails at 4.5%, with independents like Gerry Hutch at 3.6% hampered by prior polling rejection. The contest, expected late May, hinges on transfers and turnout in this four-seat area.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$773,807
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Daniel Ennis" at 76%, followed by "John Stephens" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" has generated $773.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is "Daniel Ennis" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Stephens" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.