Traders price no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 75.5% due to chronic delays stemming from unresolved voter registration disputes, clan power-sharing tensions, and logistical challenges that have postponed polls originally set for 2021 multiple times. President Muse Bihi Abdi's Kulmiye party secured re-election in the November 13, 2024, presidential vote with 53%, shifting focus to cabinet formation and the Ethiopia port deal amid opposition protests over electoral timelines, but no firm parliamentary date has emerged. Waddani (12%) and UCID (7.8%) reflect their strong presidential showings—37% and minor shares—yet low odds underscore skepticism on polls materializing soon, with Kulmiye at 4.5% trailing due to incumbency fatigue.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSomaliland Parliamentary Election Winner
Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner
No election before 2027 76%
Waddani 11%
Justice and Welfare (UCID) 7.7%
Kulmiye 4.2%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
No election before 2027
76%
Waddani
12%
Justice and Welfare (UCID)
8%
Kulmiye
4%
No election before 2027 76%
Waddani 11%
Justice and Welfare (UCID) 7.7%
Kulmiye 4.2%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
No election before 2027
$2,956 Vol.
76%
Waddani
$733 Vol.
12%
Justice and Welfare (UCID)
$2,893 Vol.
8%
Kulmiye
$1,206 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Traders price no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 75.5% due to chronic delays stemming from unresolved voter registration disputes, clan power-sharing tensions, and logistical challenges that have postponed polls originally set for 2021 multiple times. President Muse Bihi Abdi's Kulmiye party secured re-election in the November 13, 2024, presidential vote with 53%, shifting focus to cabinet formation and the Ethiopia port deal amid opposition protests over electoral timelines, but no firm parliamentary date has emerged. Waddani (12%) and UCID (7.8%) reflect their strong presidential showings—37% and minor shares—yet low odds underscore skepticism on polls materializing soon, with Kulmiye at 4.5% trailing due to incumbency fatigue.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
Volume
$7,789End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Traders price no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 75.5% due to chronic delays stemming from unresolved voter registration disputes, clan power-sharing tensions, and logistical challenges that have postponed polls originally set for 2021 multiple times. President Muse Bihi Abdi's Kulmiye party secured re-election in the November 13, 2024, presidential vote with 53%, shifting focus to cabinet formation and the Ethiopia port deal amid opposition protests over electoral timelines, but no firm parliamentary date has emerged. Waddani (12%) and UCID (7.8%) reflect their strong presidential showings—37% and minor shares—yet low odds underscore skepticism on polls materializing soon, with Kulmiye at 4.5% trailing due to incumbency fatigue.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Volume
$7,789End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders price no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 75.5% due to chronic delays stemming from unresolved voter registration disputes, clan power-sharing tensions, and logistical challenges that have postponed polls originally set for 2021 multiple times. President Muse Bihi Abdi's Kulmiye party secured re-election in the November 13, 2024, presidential vote with 53%, shifting focus to cabinet formation and the Ethiopia port deal amid opposition protests over electoral timelines, but no firm parliamentary date has emerged. Waddani (12%) and UCID (7.8%) reflect their strong presidential showings—37% and minor shares—yet low odds underscore skepticism on polls materializing soon, with Kulmiye at 4.5% trailing due to incumbency fatigue.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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