Trader consensus strongly favors Chun Jae-soo at 70.5% implied probability to win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election, propelled by recent Realmeter and Gallup Korea polls showing him leading incumbent Park Heong-joon by double digits among People Power Party (PPP) voters and in head-to-head general matchups. Park trails at 28%, as his approval ratings hover around 50% amid urban development criticisms, positioning the race as a PPP primary contest in conservative-leaning Busan. Opposition figures like Democratic Party's Lee Jae-sung (1.4%) and Rebuilding Korea Party's Cho Kuk (0.8%) lag due to fragmented progressive support and weak local polling. Key upcoming catalysts include PPP nomination filings in early 2025 and potential endorsements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2026 Busan Mayoral Election Winner
2026 Busan Mayoral Election Winner
Chun Jae-soo 70%
Park Heong-joon 28%
Lee Jae-sung 1.4%
Cho Kuk <1%

Chun Jae-soo
70%

Park Heong-joon
28%

Lee Jae-sung
1%

Cho Kuk
1%

Choi In-ho
1%

Suh Byung-soo
1%

Cho Kyoung-tae
1%

Park Jae-ho
1%

Park Seong-hoon
<1%

Kim Do-eup
<1%

Kim Young-choon
<1%

Hong Soon-heon
<1%
Chun Jae-soo 70%
Park Heong-joon 28%
Lee Jae-sung 1.4%
Cho Kuk <1%

Chun Jae-soo
70%

Park Heong-joon
28%

Lee Jae-sung
1%

Cho Kuk
1%

Choi In-ho
1%

Suh Byung-soo
1%

Cho Kyoung-tae
1%

Park Jae-ho
1%

Park Seong-hoon
<1%

Kim Do-eup
<1%

Kim Young-choon
<1%

Hong Soon-heon
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors Chun Jae-soo at 70.5% implied probability to win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election, propelled by recent Realmeter and Gallup Korea polls showing him leading incumbent Park Heong-joon by double digits among People Power Party (PPP) voters and in head-to-head general matchups. Park trails at 28%, as his approval ratings hover around 50% amid urban development criticisms, positioning the race as a PPP primary contest in conservative-leaning Busan. Opposition figures like Democratic Party's Lee Jae-sung (1.4%) and Rebuilding Korea Party's Cho Kuk (0.8%) lag due to fragmented progressive support and weak local polling. Key upcoming catalysts include PPP nomination filings in early 2025 and potential endorsements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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