Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

19%

December 31

$25M Vol.

$167K today

$696K Liq.

870

Ends in 9 months

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

27%

11–13

$1M Vol.

$41.8K Liq.

1

Ends in 9 months

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

51%

2

$3M Vol.

$167K Liq.

18

Ends in 9 months

April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

28%

1.20–1.24ºC

$59.5K Vol.

$17.1K Liq.

Ends in 29 days

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

60%

<5

$431K Vol.

$24.3K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - 12?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - 12?

81%

0

$101K Vol.

$12.4K Liq.

Ends in about 13 hours

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

99%

↑2k

$8M Vol.

$41.4K Liq.

1

Ends in 9 months

How many Tornadoes in the US in April?

How many Tornadoes in the US in April?

25%

140–169

$28.8K Vol.

$9.0K Liq.

Ends in 29 days

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - April 12?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - April 12?

42%

3

$51.4K Vol.

$5.9K Liq.

9

Ends in about 13 hours

Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

78%

1800

$153K Vol.

$23.9K Liq.

Ends in 19 days

Precipitation in Seattle in April?

Precipitation in Seattle in April?

31%

3-3.5"

$26.1K Vol.

$13.2K Liq.

Ends in 19 days

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

90%

SpaceX

$2M Vol.

$250K Liq.

11

Ends in 9 months

2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

51%

3rd hottest

$41.2K Vol.

$9.8K Liq.

Ends in 29 days

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

48%

2.0T+

$728K Vol.

$96.8K Liq.

9

Ends in over 1 year

Precipitation in NYC in April?

Precipitation in NYC in April?

60%

<2"

$32.2K Vol.

$10.3K Liq.

Ends in 19 days

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

38%

≤8

$27.4K Vol.

$8.4K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

37%

160-179

$264K Vol.

$33.6K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?

44%

0

$4.5K Vol.

$3.5K Liq.

Ends in 8 days

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

78%

Hong Wang

$469K Vol.

$10.0K Liq.

1

Ends in 4 months

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

36%

$320K Vol.

$8.1K Liq.

9

Ends in 9 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Science.

Polymarket currently hosts 177 active markets for Science that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $40.4M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 19% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Science predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.