Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 23% for first, reflecting exceptionally warm January and February data from NOAA and Copernicus—fifth-warmest globally despite lingering La Niña cooling—while Berkeley Earth's March 19 update pegs February as nominally second-warmest and assigns 2026 a 16% chance of record heat with fourth place most likely. Ongoing anthropogenic warming, recent studies highlighting accelerated decadal rates near 0.35°C per decade, and NOAA's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through mid-2026 (with potential El Niño emergence later) underpin top-four dominance (72.2% combined), though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty from variable ocean-atmosphere coupling. Key upcoming catalysts include Copernicus and NOAA March bulletins and seasonal outlooks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2 45%
1 23%
4 17%
3 10.7%
$2,380,967 Vol.
$2,380,967 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1
23%
2
45%
3
11%
4
17%
5
2%
6 or lower
3%
2 45%
1 23%
4 17%
3 10.7%
$2,380,967 Vol.
$2,380,967 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1
$321,205 Vol.
23%
2
$242,075 Vol.
45%
3
$366,695 Vol.
11%
4
$357,750 Vol.
17%
5
$661,959 Vol.
2%
6 or lower
$431,282 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 23% for first, reflecting exceptionally warm January and February data from NOAA and Copernicus—fifth-warmest globally despite lingering La Niña cooling—while Berkeley Earth's March 19 update pegs February as nominally second-warmest and assigns 2026 a 16% chance of record heat with fourth place most likely. Ongoing anthropogenic warming, recent studies highlighting accelerated decadal rates near 0.35°C per decade, and NOAA's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through mid-2026 (with potential El Niño emergence later) underpin top-four dominance (72.2% combined), though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty from variable ocean-atmosphere coupling. Key upcoming catalysts include Copernicus and NOAA March bulletins and seasonal outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,380,967End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 23% for first, reflecting exceptionally warm January and February data from NOAA and Copernicus—fifth-warmest globally despite lingering La Niña cooling—while Berkeley Earth's March 19 update pegs February as nominally second-warmest and assigns 2026 a 16% chance of record heat with fourth place most likely. Ongoing anthropogenic warming, recent studies highlighting accelerated decadal rates near 0.35°C per decade, and NOAA's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through mid-2026 (with potential El Niño emergence later) underpin top-four dominance (72.2% combined), though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty from variable ocean-atmosphere coupling. Key upcoming catalysts include Copernicus and NOAA March bulletins and seasonal outlooks.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,380,967End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45.5% implied probability for 2026 ranking second-hottest on record and 23% for first, reflecting exceptionally warm January and February data from NOAA and Copernicus—fifth-warmest globally despite lingering La Niña cooling—while Berkeley Earth's March 19 update pegs February as nominally second-warmest and assigns 2026 a 16% chance of record heat with fourth place most likely. Ongoing anthropogenic warming, recent studies highlighting accelerated decadal rates near 0.35°C per decade, and NOAA's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through mid-2026 (with potential El Niño emergence later) underpin top-four dominance (72.2% combined), though model ensembles acknowledge uncertainty from variable ocean-atmosphere coupling. Key upcoming catalysts include Copernicus and NOAA March bulletins and seasonal outlooks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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