NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight test of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft, lifted off successfully on April 1, 2026, at 6:35 p.m. EDT from Kennedy Space Center, propelling four astronauts—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—on a 10-day lunar flyby. This milestone follows accelerated ground preparations, including a March 17 reassessment that expedited rocket rollout and crew quarantine starting March 18, with no recent delays reported. Trader sentiment reflects strong consensus on mission viability post-launch, validated by the completed perigee raise maneuver. Key upcoming catalysts include closest lunar approach on flight day 6 and Pacific Ocean splashdown around April 11, testing deep-space life support and reentry systems amid competition from SpaceX's Starship for future Artemis landings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,014,378 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
February 7
No
February 28
No
March 31
No
April 30
Yes
$1,014,378 Vol.
February 7
$128,524 Vol.
No
February 28
$168,829 Vol.
No
March 31
$208,028 Vol.
No
April 30
$427,650 Vol.
Yes
If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight test of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft, lifted off successfully on April 1, 2026, at 6:35 p.m. EDT from Kennedy Space Center, propelling four astronauts—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—on a 10-day lunar flyby. This milestone follows accelerated ground preparations, including a March 17 reassessment that expedited rocket rollout and crew quarantine starting March 18, with no recent delays reported. Trader sentiment reflects strong consensus on mission viability post-launch, validated by the completed perigee raise maneuver. Key upcoming catalysts include closest lunar approach on flight day 6 and Pacific Ocean splashdown around April 11, testing deep-space life support and reentry systems amid competition from SpaceX's Starship for future Artemis landings.
If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Market Opened: Jan 20, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,014,378End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 20, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight test of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft, lifted off successfully on April 1, 2026, at 6:35 p.m. EDT from Kennedy Space Center, propelling four astronauts—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—on a 10-day lunar flyby. This milestone follows accelerated ground preparations, including a March 17 reassessment that expedited rocket rollout and crew quarantine starting March 18, with no recent delays reported. Trader sentiment reflects strong consensus on mission viability post-launch, validated by the completed perigee raise maneuver. Key upcoming catalysts include closest lunar approach on flight day 6 and Pacific Ocean splashdown around April 11, testing deep-space life support and reentry systems amid competition from SpaceX's Starship for future Artemis landings.
If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$1,014,378End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 20, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight test of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft, lifted off successfully on April 1, 2026, at 6:35 p.m. EDT from Kennedy Space Center, propelling four astronauts—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—on a 10-day lunar flyby. This milestone follows accelerated ground preparations, including a March 17 reassessment that expedited rocket rollout and crew quarantine starting March 18, with no recent delays reported. Trader sentiment reflects strong consensus on mission viability post-launch, validated by the completed perigee raise maneuver. Key upcoming catalysts include closest lunar approach on flight day 6 and Pacific Ocean splashdown around April 11, testing deep-space life support and reentry systems amid competition from SpaceX's Starship for future Artemis landings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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