Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to at least one 2026 month shattering the global surface temperature record—likely held by July 2024—driven by NOAA's March 12 forecast of El Niño emerging by June-August (62% chance), following La Niña's fade from early-year peaks. January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record per NOAA and Copernicus Climate Change Service, with anomalies around 1.1-1.2°C above 20th-century averages despite cooling ENSO influences. This reflects anthropogenic warming's relentless push, amplified historically by El Niño, as seen in 2023-2025 record years. Regional extremes like the record-shattering U.S. West March heatwave signal persistence, though model uncertainty persists; watch April ENSO updates and monthly reports for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$105,308 Vol.
$105,308 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
$105,308 Vol.
$105,308 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to at least one 2026 month shattering the global surface temperature record—likely held by July 2024—driven by NOAA's March 12 forecast of El Niño emerging by June-August (62% chance), following La Niña's fade from early-year peaks. January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record per NOAA and Copernicus Climate Change Service, with anomalies around 1.1-1.2°C above 20th-century averages despite cooling ENSO influences. This reflects anthropogenic warming's relentless push, amplified historically by El Niño, as seen in 2023-2025 record years. Regional extremes like the record-shattering U.S. West March heatwave signal persistence, though model uncertainty persists; watch April ENSO updates and monthly reports for shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$105,308End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to at least one 2026 month shattering the global surface temperature record—likely held by July 2024—driven by NOAA's March 12 forecast of El Niño emerging by June-August (62% chance), following La Niña's fade from early-year peaks. January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record per NOAA and Copernicus Climate Change Service, with anomalies around 1.1-1.2°C above 20th-century averages despite cooling ENSO influences. This reflects anthropogenic warming's relentless push, amplified historically by El Niño, as seen in 2023-2025 record years. Regional extremes like the record-shattering U.S. West March heatwave signal persistence, though model uncertainty persists; watch April ENSO updates and monthly reports for shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$105,308End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to at least one 2026 month shattering the global surface temperature record—likely held by July 2024—driven by NOAA's March 12 forecast of El Niño emerging by June-August (62% chance), following La Niña's fade from early-year peaks. January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record per NOAA and Copernicus Climate Change Service, with anomalies around 1.1-1.2°C above 20th-century averages despite cooling ENSO influences. This reflects anthropogenic warming's relentless push, amplified historically by El Niño, as seen in 2023-2025 record years. Regional extremes like the record-shattering U.S. West March heatwave signal persistence, though model uncertainty persists; watch April ENSO updates and monthly reports for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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