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Highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31?

Mar 31

Mar 31

16°C 25%

17°C 24%

15°C 22%

8°C or below 17%

Polymarket
NEW

16°C 25%

17°C 24%

15°C 22%

8°C or below 17%

Polymarket
NEW

8°C or below

$458 Vol.

12%

9°C

$134 Vol.

6%

10°C

$0 Vol.

17%

11°C

$0 Vol.

10%

12°C

$0 Vol.

15%

13°C

$5 Vol.

15%

14°C

$0 Vol.

14%

15°C

$10 Vol.

22%

16°C

$0 Vol.

25%

17°C

$0 Vol.

24%

18°C or higher

$30 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) project Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 clustering tightly around 15-17°C, mirroring the Polymarket's evenly split trader consensus with implied probabilities of 22-24.5% for these outcomes. This reflects a mild high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean promoting daytime warming, offset by variable northerly winds and partial cloud cover that could suppress peaks by 1-2°C. Recent 48-hour model runs show minimal shifts, maintaining a 2°C spread amid typical springtime uncertainty from evolving synoptic patterns. Climatological March highs average 12-14°C, but current anomalies suggest above-normal conditions. Traders await daily 00Z updates for potential refinement ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$632
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) project Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 clustering tightly around 15-17°C, mirroring the Polymarket's evenly split trader consensus with implied probabilities of 22-24.5% for these outcomes. This reflects a mild high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean promoting daytime warming, offset by variable northerly winds and partial cloud cover that could suppress peaks by 1-2°C. Recent 48-hour model runs show minimal shifts, maintaining a 2°C spread amid typical springtime uncertainty from evolving synoptic patterns. Climatological March highs average 12-14°C, but current anomalies suggest above-normal conditions. Traders await daily 00Z updates for potential refinement ahead of resolution.

Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) project Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 clustering tightly around 15-17°C, mirroring the Polymarket's evenly split trader consensus with implied probabilities of 22-24.5% for these outcomes. This reflects a mild high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean promoting daytime warming, offset by variable northerly winds and partial cloud cover that could suppress peaks by 1-2°C. Recent 48-hour model runs show minimal shifts, maintaining a 2°C spread amid typical springtime uncertainty from evolving synoptic patterns. Climatological March highs average 12-14°C, but current anomalies suggest above-normal conditions. Traders await daily 00Z updates for potential refinement ahead of resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "16°C" at 25%, followed by "17°C" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31?" is "16°C" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "17°C" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.