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Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 31

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 31

8°C or higher 96%

6°C 3.6%

3°C 2.8%

5°C 1.6%

Polymarket
NEW

8°C or higher 96%

6°C 3.6%

3°C 2.8%

5°C 1.6%

Polymarket
NEW

-2°C or below

$660 Vol.

1%

-1°C

$678 Vol.

1%

0°C

$182 Vol.

1%

1°C

$294 Vol.

1%

2°C

$698 Vol.

1%

3°C

$636 Vol.

3%

4°C

$135 Vol.

1%

5°C

$131 Vol.

2%

6°C

$76 Vol.

4%

7°C

$334 Vol.

1%

8°C or higher

$2,299 Vol.

96%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders heavily favor 8°C or higher at 83% implied probability for Toronto's highest temperature on March 31, driven by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model runs forecasting a daytime high near 12°C under a mild high-pressure ridge and southerly flow ushering in above-normal warmth for late March. This consensus reflects stable spring conditions with no signals of Arctic air intrusion, contrasting historical averages around 6°C; recent 48-hour updates show negligible model spread, with GFS and Canadian ensembles aligning on 10–14°C peaks. Official hourly observations will confirm resolution, but current data points to low risk of cooler outcomes amid persistent sunny skies and light winds.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,023
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:01 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders heavily favor 8°C or higher at 83% implied probability for Toronto's highest temperature on March 31, driven by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model runs forecasting a daytime high near 12°C under a mild high-pressure ridge and southerly flow ushering in above-normal warmth for late March. This consensus reflects stable spring conditions with no signals of Arctic air intrusion, contrasting historical averages around 6°C; recent 48-hour updates show negligible model spread, with GFS and Canadian ensembles aligning on 10–14°C peaks. Official hourly observations will confirm resolution, but current data points to low risk of cooler outcomes amid persistent sunny skies and light winds.

Traders heavily favor 8°C or higher at 83% implied probability for Toronto's highest temperature on March 31, driven by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model runs forecasting a daytime high near 12°C under a mild high-pressure ridge and southerly flow ushering in above-normal warmth for late March. This consensus reflects stable spring conditions with no signals of Arctic air intrusion, contrasting historical averages around 6°C; recent 48-hour updates show negligible model spread, with GFS and Canadian ensembles aligning on 10–14°C peaks. Official hourly observations will confirm resolution, but current data points to low risk of cooler outcomes amid persistent sunny skies and light winds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "8°C or higher" at 96%, followed by "6°C" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?" is "8°C or higher" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6°C" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.