Trader sentiment for Wuhan's highest temperature on March 29 remains tightly contested, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities for 18°C or below versus 28°C or higher, reflecting model ensemble spread amid spring transitional weather patterns. Global forecasts from ECMWF and GFS diverge sharply: cooler runs anticipate a lingering East Asian cold front suppressing highs below 19°C via northerly winds and cloud cover, while warmer projections favor southerly moisture advection and high pressure ridges boosting temperatures to 28°C+. Historical late-March averages hover around 16-20°C, but 2024's positive temperature anomaly and urban heat island effects in Wuhan amplify upside risk; upcoming CMA updates by March 27 could catalyze shifts as traders weigh frontal boundary evolution and diurnal heating potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 29?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 29?
18°C or below 26%
28°C or higher 26%
19°C 18%
20°C 18%
18°C or below
26%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C
17%
25°C
16%
26°C
15%
27°C
13%
28°C or higher
26%
18°C or below 26%
28°C or higher 26%
19°C 18%
20°C 18%
18°C or below
26%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C
17%
25°C
16%
26°C
15%
27°C
13%
28°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Wuhan's highest temperature on March 29 remains tightly contested, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities for 18°C or below versus 28°C or higher, reflecting model ensemble spread amid spring transitional weather patterns. Global forecasts from ECMWF and GFS diverge sharply: cooler runs anticipate a lingering East Asian cold front suppressing highs below 19°C via northerly winds and cloud cover, while warmer projections favor southerly moisture advection and high pressure ridges boosting temperatures to 28°C+. Historical late-March averages hover around 16-20°C, but 2024's positive temperature anomaly and urban heat island effects in Wuhan amplify upside risk; upcoming CMA updates by March 27 could catalyze shifts as traders weigh frontal boundary evolution and diurnal heating potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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