Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 17-20°C highs for Tel Aviv on March 25, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which converge on mild conditions amid a weakening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. Israel's Meteorological Service (IMS) outlook aligns with peaks near 18-19°C, influenced by moderate southerly winds carrying Saharan dust but tempered by cooler sea surface temperatures around 18°C offshore. Historical March 25 averages hover at 21°C, yet current model spreads—0.5-2°C divergence—reflect uncertainty in low-level moisture advection, slightly favoring sub-20°C outcomes over warmer outliers. Traders eye tonight's 00Z updates for resolution-defining shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 25?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 25?
18°C 22%
17°C 19%
19°C 19%
20°C 18%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
16%
16°C
14%
17°C
19%
18°C
22%
19°C
19%
20°C
18%
21°C
16%
22°C
15%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
18°C 22%
17°C 19%
19°C 19%
20°C 18%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
16%
16°C
14%
17°C
19%
18°C
22%
19°C
19%
20°C
18%
21°C
16%
22°C
15%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 17-20°C highs for Tel Aviv on March 25, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which converge on mild conditions amid a weakening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. Israel's Meteorological Service (IMS) outlook aligns with peaks near 18-19°C, influenced by moderate southerly winds carrying Saharan dust but tempered by cooler sea surface temperatures around 18°C offshore. Historical March 25 averages hover at 21°C, yet current model spreads—0.5-2°C divergence—reflect uncertainty in low-level moisture advection, slightly favoring sub-20°C outcomes over warmer outliers. Traders eye tonight's 00Z updates for resolution-defining shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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