The latest National Weather Service forecast for Houston on March 25 projects a high near 84°F under a persistent subtropical ridge and southerly winds drawing warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico—elevating the 84-85°F bin to 24% implied probability, just ahead of 82-83°F at 19%. Differentiating these frontrunners are model divergences: GFS ensembles skew warmer toward 86°F with high-pressure dominance, while ECMWF introduces cooling via increased cloud cover and shear-line moisture, aligning with March's climatological average of 77°F. Above-normal Gulf sea surface temperatures bolster upper-80s upside, but traders monitor 00Z updates for cold front risks that could shave 2-3°F, tightening the closely matched odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on March 25?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 25?
88-89°F 19%
86-87°F 19%
80-81°F 19%
82-83°F 19%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
16%
94°F or higher
2%
88-89°F 19%
86-87°F 19%
80-81°F 19%
82-83°F 19%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
16%
94°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...The latest National Weather Service forecast for Houston on March 25 projects a high near 84°F under a persistent subtropical ridge and southerly winds drawing warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico—elevating the 84-85°F bin to 24% implied probability, just ahead of 82-83°F at 19%. Differentiating these frontrunners are model divergences: GFS ensembles skew warmer toward 86°F with high-pressure dominance, while ECMWF introduces cooling via increased cloud cover and shear-line moisture, aligning with March's climatological average of 77°F. Above-normal Gulf sea surface temperatures bolster upper-80s upside, but traders monitor 00Z updates for cold front risks that could shave 2-3°F, tightening the closely matched odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions