Trader consensus on Polymarket pins the highest temperature in Houston on March 24 at 84-85°F (39.5% implied probability), aligning closely with the National Weather Service's latest forecast of 83-87°F under a dominant subtropical ridge fostering clear skies and southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF have converged on peaks near 84°F since yesterday's runs, boosted by recent soundings showing anomalously warm low-level air masses and negligible cloud interference for peak insolation. Historical March climatology reinforces this, with 80-89°F highs in 70% of ridge-dominated days, sidelining cooler 75°F-or-below (2.7%) or scorching 94°F-plus (1.8%) outliers absent model shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on March 24?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 24?
84-85°F 32%
80-81°F 26%
82-83°F 25%
86-87°F 6%
75°F or below
3%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
41%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
3%
94°F or higher
2%
84-85°F 32%
80-81°F 26%
82-83°F 25%
86-87°F 6%
75°F or below
3%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
41%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
3%
94°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket pins the highest temperature in Houston on March 24 at 84-85°F (39.5% implied probability), aligning closely with the National Weather Service's latest forecast of 83-87°F under a dominant subtropical ridge fostering clear skies and southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF have converged on peaks near 84°F since yesterday's runs, boosted by recent soundings showing anomalously warm low-level air masses and negligible cloud interference for peak insolation. Historical March climatology reinforces this, with 80-89°F highs in 70% of ridge-dominated days, sidelining cooler 75°F-or-below (2.7%) or scorching 94°F-plus (1.8%) outliers absent model shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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