Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 82-83°F (31%) as Miami's highest temperature on March 25, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast ensembles averaging 81-83°F amid a warming trend from persistent southwesterly winds and above-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Closely trailing 78-79°F (24.5%) and 84-85°F (20%) odds reflect model spread in GFS and ECMWF runs, where uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze strength could shave 2-4°F via enhanced mixing or boost peaks via clearer skies. March historical highs average 80°F, but recent observations show diurnal ranges favoring slight upside from urban heat island effects, keeping lower extremes like 76°F or below under 8%. Upcoming hourly updates from NOAA could shift these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on March 25?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 25?
82-83°F 32%
78-79°F 25%
80-81°F 22%
84-85°F 20%
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
32%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
5%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
1%
82-83°F 32%
78-79°F 25%
80-81°F 22%
84-85°F 20%
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
32%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
5%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 82-83°F (31%) as Miami's highest temperature on March 25, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast ensembles averaging 81-83°F amid a warming trend from persistent southwesterly winds and above-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Closely trailing 78-79°F (24.5%) and 84-85°F (20%) odds reflect model spread in GFS and ECMWF runs, where uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze strength could shave 2-4°F via enhanced mixing or boost peaks via clearer skies. March historical highs average 80°F, but recent observations show diurnal ranges favoring slight upside from urban heat island effects, keeping lower extremes like 76°F or below under 8%. Upcoming hourly updates from NOAA could shift these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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