Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF forecasts clustering Dallas's March 25 high between 88-93°F under a potent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and clear skies for maximal solar insolation. Leading 88-89°F (26.5%) and 90-91°F (26.5%) odds stem from model spread: cooler NAM runs emphasize slight afternoon cloudiness capping peaks at 88°F, while hotter HRRR simulations project 91°F amid lighter winds and drier boundary layers. Recent NWS updates confirm trending warmth from a southern surge, 15-20°F above the 73°F March 25 climatology, but low thunderstorm odds (10-20%) leave room for 92-93°F (23%) if heating maximizes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on March 25?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 25?
88-89°F 27%
90-91°F 27%
92-93°F 23%
86-87°F 22%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
27%
90-91°F
27%
92-93°F
23%
94-95°F
13%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
1%
88-89°F 27%
90-91°F 27%
92-93°F 23%
86-87°F 22%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
27%
90-91°F
27%
92-93°F
23%
94-95°F
13%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF forecasts clustering Dallas's March 25 high between 88-93°F under a potent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and clear skies for maximal solar insolation. Leading 88-89°F (26.5%) and 90-91°F (26.5%) odds stem from model spread: cooler NAM runs emphasize slight afternoon cloudiness capping peaks at 88°F, while hotter HRRR simulations project 91°F amid lighter winds and drier boundary layers. Recent NWS updates confirm trending warmth from a southern surge, 15-20°F above the 73°F March 25 climatology, but low thunderstorm odds (10-20%) leave room for 92-93°F (23%) if heating maximizes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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