Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around a highest temperature in Wuhan on March 25 of 20°C (26% implied probability), with 21°C (24.5%) and 19°C (21.5%) close behind, driven by converging multi-model ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting diurnal maxima of 18-21°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring warming. This exceeds the late-March historical average of 16°C, but subtle variations in predicted cloud cover, solar insolation, and light southerly winds differentiate outcomes—clearer skies favor 21°C, while residual post-frontal stratus caps at 19°C. Model spread of ±1-2°C underscores uncertainty ahead of afternoon peak heating, with 12Z updates poised to influence odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 25?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 25?
20°C 26%
21°C 25%
19°C 22%
17°C 19%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
7%
16°C
17%
17°C
19%
18°C
20%
19°C
22%
20°C
26%
21°C
25%
22°C or higher
15%
20°C 26%
21°C 25%
19°C 22%
17°C 19%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
7%
16°C
17%
17°C
19%
18°C
20%
19°C
22%
20°C
26%
21°C
25%
22°C or higher
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:41 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around a highest temperature in Wuhan on March 25 of 20°C (26% implied probability), with 21°C (24.5%) and 19°C (21.5%) close behind, driven by converging multi-model ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting diurnal maxima of 18-21°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring warming. This exceeds the late-March historical average of 16°C, but subtle variations in predicted cloud cover, solar insolation, and light southerly winds differentiate outcomes—clearer skies favor 21°C, while residual post-frontal stratus caps at 19°C. Model spread of ±1-2°C underscores uncertainty ahead of afternoon peak heating, with 12Z updates poised to influence odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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