Trader sentiment on Beijing's March 26 high temperature tilts toward 25°C at 26% implied probability, fueled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in the mid-20s under a persistent high-pressure ridge over eastern China, delivering above-normal spring warmth. Leading outcomes from 23-27°C remain tightly contested due to model spread: ECMWF leans cooler at ~24°C with partial cloudiness tempering insolation, while GFS edges warmer near 26°C if clearer skies prevail during peak diurnal heating around 2 PM local time. Recent soundings confirm dry air aloft minimizing convective interference, though a trailing cold front risks trimming 1-2°C if it accelerates per 12Z updates; historical March baselines (~13°C average) underscore the anomalous mildness from amplified jet stream ridging.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on March 26?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 26?
25°C 26%
24°C 20%
23°C 19%
26°C 17%
21°C or below
3%
22°C
16%
23°C
19%
24°C
20%
25°C
26%
26°C
17%
27°C
17%
28°C
16%
29°C
16%
30°C
16%
31°C or higher
2%
25°C 26%
24°C 20%
23°C 19%
26°C 17%
21°C or below
3%
22°C
16%
23°C
19%
24°C
20%
25°C
26%
26°C
17%
27°C
17%
28°C
16%
29°C
16%
30°C
16%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Beijing's March 26 high temperature tilts toward 25°C at 26% implied probability, fueled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in the mid-20s under a persistent high-pressure ridge over eastern China, delivering above-normal spring warmth. Leading outcomes from 23-27°C remain tightly contested due to model spread: ECMWF leans cooler at ~24°C with partial cloudiness tempering insolation, while GFS edges warmer near 26°C if clearer skies prevail during peak diurnal heating around 2 PM local time. Recent soundings confirm dry air aloft minimizing convective interference, though a trailing cold front risks trimming 1-2°C if it accelerates per 12Z updates; historical March baselines (~13°C average) underscore the anomalous mildness from amplified jet stream ridging.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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