Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpoint a daytime high near 17°C in Tel Aviv on March 26, propelled by a cool northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover, giving it a 24% implied probability edge amid tight competition. Historical March averages hover at 19-20°C, but sea breeze moderation and low-pressure influences differentiate outcomes: 16°C (18%) gains if overcast thickens, suppressing solar heating, while 18°C (16.5%) hinges on afternoon clearing. Lower odds for 15°C or below reflect minimal cold snap risk per Israel Meteorological Service data, with 21°C+ (16.5%) trailing due to unfavorable upper-air patterns. Traders eye final 00Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
17°C 24%
16°C 18%
15°C 17%
21°C or higher 17%
11°C or below
16%
12°C
15%
13°C
16%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
18%
17°C
24%
18°C
16%
19°C
14%
20°C
11%
21°C or higher
17%
17°C 24%
16°C 18%
15°C 17%
21°C or higher 17%
11°C or below
16%
12°C
15%
13°C
16%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
18%
17°C
24%
18°C
16%
19°C
14%
20°C
11%
21°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpoint a daytime high near 17°C in Tel Aviv on March 26, propelled by a cool northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover, giving it a 24% implied probability edge amid tight competition. Historical March averages hover at 19-20°C, but sea breeze moderation and low-pressure influences differentiate outcomes: 16°C (18%) gains if overcast thickens, suppressing solar heating, while 18°C (16.5%) hinges on afternoon clearing. Lower odds for 15°C or below reflect minimal cold snap risk per Israel Meteorological Service data, with 21°C+ (16.5%) trailing due to unfavorable upper-air patterns. Traders eye final 00Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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