Trader consensus favors a highest temperature of 19°C in Tel Aviv on March 24 at 31% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which cluster peak daytime highs around 18-20°C amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. Israel's Meteorological Service projections align closely, showing 19°C as the modal outcome due to moderating sea breezes off the Mediterranean limiting adiabatic warming, while 18°C (23.5%) gains traction from potential low-level stratus persistence and 20°C (22.0%) from clearer skies in high-resolution runs. Uncertainty stems from short-range model divergence on upper-level ridging strength, with historical late-March norms averaging 20°C but this day's setup cooler than recent precedents. Key watch: 00Z model updates tonight could shift odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
18°C 35%
19°C 23%
21°C 17%
20°C 15%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
7%
16°C
15%
17°C
16%
18°C
24%
19°C
31%
20°C
22%
21°C
17%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
9%
18°C 35%
19°C 23%
21°C 17%
20°C 15%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
7%
16°C
15%
17°C
16%
18°C
24%
19°C
31%
20°C
22%
21°C
17%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a highest temperature of 19°C in Tel Aviv on March 24 at 31% implied probability, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which cluster peak daytime highs around 18-20°C amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. Israel's Meteorological Service projections align closely, showing 19°C as the modal outcome due to moderating sea breezes off the Mediterranean limiting adiabatic warming, while 18°C (23.5%) gains traction from potential low-level stratus persistence and 20°C (22.0%) from clearer skies in high-resolution runs. Uncertainty stems from short-range model divergence on upper-level ridging strength, with historical late-March norms averaging 20°C but this day's setup cooler than recent precedents. Key watch: 00Z model updates tonight could shift odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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