Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS), as tracked by authoritative weather services, point to a daytime high near 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 23, anchoring trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability for that outcome and 22% for 21°C. This reflects a mild Mediterranean high-pressure ridge dominating, with southerly winds moderating cooler air masses, though high uncertainty stems from divergent model runs on cloud cover and potential shamal influences. Historical March peaks average 19-21°C per Israel Meteorological Service data, but recent runs shifted warmer from earlier cool biases; watch for 00Z updates Thursday, as resolution hinges on observed max at Ben Gurion Airport. Lower odds for extremes like 24°C+ (2.9%) or 14°C- (1.5%) align with slim risks of heat advection or cold outbreaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
20°C 34%
19°C 25%
21°C 22%
18°C 19%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
7%
18°C
16%
19°C
18%
20°C
34%
21°C
22%
22°C
6%
23°C
6%
24°C or higher
3%
20°C 34%
19°C 25%
21°C 22%
18°C 19%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
7%
18°C
16%
19°C
18%
20°C
34%
21°C
22%
22°C
6%
23°C
6%
24°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS), as tracked by authoritative weather services, point to a daytime high near 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 23, anchoring trader consensus at 33.5% implied probability for that outcome and 22% for 21°C. This reflects a mild Mediterranean high-pressure ridge dominating, with southerly winds moderating cooler air masses, though high uncertainty stems from divergent model runs on cloud cover and potential shamal influences. Historical March peaks average 19-21°C per Israel Meteorological Service data, but recent runs shifted warmer from earlier cool biases; watch for 00Z updates Thursday, as resolution hinges on observed max at Ben Gurion Airport. Lower odds for extremes like 24°C+ (2.9%) or 14°C- (1.5%) align with slim risks of heat advection or cold outbreaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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