Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 26°C (29%) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 26, closely trailed by 24°C (26.5%), reflecting tight model spreads amid subtropical high pressure dominating southern China. Leading ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS project peaks of 25-27°C, supported by recent observations of 24-25°C highs and low humidity enhancing daytime heating via reduced cloud cover. Differentiating factors include urban heat island effects in the densely built Pearl River Delta potentially pushing toward 26-27°C, versus afternoon sea breezes from the South China Sea capping at 24-25°C; historical March norms average 25°C, but lingering winter fronts add uncertainty to exact thresholds. Upcoming hourly updates from China Meteorological Administration could shift odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 26?
26°C 29%
24°C 27%
25°C 20%
27°C 20%
20°C or below
19%
21°C
18%
22°C
18%
23°C
19%
24°C
27%
25°C
20%
26°C
29%
27°C
20%
28°C
19%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
19%
26°C 29%
24°C 27%
25°C 20%
27°C 20%
20°C or below
19%
21°C
18%
22°C
18%
23°C
19%
24°C
27%
25°C
20%
26°C
29%
27°C
20%
28°C
19%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 26°C (29%) as Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 26, closely trailed by 24°C (26.5%), reflecting tight model spreads amid subtropical high pressure dominating southern China. Leading ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS project peaks of 25-27°C, supported by recent observations of 24-25°C highs and low humidity enhancing daytime heating via reduced cloud cover. Differentiating factors include urban heat island effects in the densely built Pearl River Delta potentially pushing toward 26-27°C, versus afternoon sea breezes from the South China Sea capping at 24-25°C; historical March norms average 25°C, but lingering winter fronts add uncertainty to exact thresholds. Upcoming hourly updates from China Meteorological Administration could shift odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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