SpaceX predictions & odds

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

SpaceX

Science

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

64%

Successful splash down?

$722k Vol.

$54.5k today

$14.4k Liq.

7

NASA Artemis II

SpaceX

Science

NASA Artemis II

82%

March 31

$103k Vol.

$10.0k Liq.

24

Ends in about 2 months

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

SpaceX

Elon Musk

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

72%

1T+

$1m Vol.

$128k Liq.

39

Ends in almost 2 years

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

SpaceX

Elon Musk

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

30%

$X

$2m Vol.

$54.0k Liq.

96

Ends in almost 2 years

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

SpaceX

Elon Musk

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

76%

>$1T

$312k Vol.

$37.4k Liq.

5

Ends in almost 2 years

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)

SpaceX

Science

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)

27%

<1.0T

$40.2k Vol.

$28.1k Liq.

1

Ends in almost 2 years

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

SpaceX

Elon Musk

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

16%

$7.2k Vol.

$3.9k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

SpaceX

Business

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

60%

Morgan Stanley

$303k Vol.

$33.9k Liq.

4

Ends in almost 2 years

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

SpaceX

Science

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

7%

$457k Vol.

$61.8k Liq.

12

Ends in 11 months

SpaceX IPO by ___ ?

SpaceX

Finance

SpaceX IPO by ___ ?

81%

September 30

$1.2k Vol.

$3.5k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

SpaceX

Science

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

2%

$52.6k Vol.

$12.7k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

SpaceX

Science

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

25%

$71.3k Vol.

$11.5k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

SpaceX

Science

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

29%

5-6

$77.6k Vol.

$6.3k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

SpaceX

Science

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

49%

$141k Vol.

$7.6k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by...?

SpaceX

Science

Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by...?

1%

January 31, 2026

$15.5k Vol.

$2.8k Liq.

3

Ends in 15 days

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

SpaceX

Science

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

57%

200 or more

$6.8k Vol.

$9.1k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

SpaceX

Science

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

69%

SpaceX

$55 Vol.

$3.6k Liq.

1

Ends in almost 2 years

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

SpaceX

Science

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

6%

$3.3k Vol.

$3.0k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?

SpaceX

Elon Musk

SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?

8%

$1.6k Vol.

$1.7k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

SpaceX

Science

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

41%

$2.4k Vol.

$1.9k Liq.

Ends in 11 months