Elon Musk predictions & odds

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Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

Elon Musk

AI

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

100%

June 30, 2026

$12m Vol.

$2m today

$249k Liq.

1,263

Elon Musk Net Worth on January 31?

Elon Musk

Culture

Elon Musk Net Worth on January 31?

98%

670b+

$79.9k Vol.

$15.4k Liq.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

70%

1T+

$1m Vol.

$131k Liq.

35

Ends in almost 2 years

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Elon Musk

Business

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

4%

$2m Vol.

$95.8k Liq.

79

Ends in 5 months

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Elon Musk

SpaceX

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

31%

$X

$2m Vol.

$57.7k Liq.

96

Ends in almost 2 years

SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

Elon Musk

Science

SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

66%

$18.4k Vol.

$4.2k Liq.

1

Ends in 5 months

3rd richest person on December 31?

Elon Musk

Business

3rd richest person on December 31?

32%

Sergey Brin

$12.5k Vol.

$11.3k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

58%

Successful splash down?

$726k Vol.

$13.2k Liq.

7

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

76%

>$1T

$314k Vol.

$40.8k Liq.

5

Ends in almost 2 years

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Elon Musk

Business

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

58%

<350k

$223k Vol.

$20.1k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Grok 4.20 released by...?

Elon Musk

AI

Grok 4.20 released by...?

96%

April 20

$542k Vol.

$16.1k Liq.

116

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)

Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)

35%

2.0T+

$56.1k Vol.

$30.3k Liq.

1

Ends in almost 2 years

Grok 4.20 released on...?

Elon Musk

AI

Grok 4.20 released on...?

100%

No release by January 31

$781k Vol.

$4.8k Liq.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Elon Musk

SpaceX

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

19%

$10.4k Vol.

$2.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Grok 4.20 released on...?

Elon Musk

AI

Grok 4.20 released on...?

85%

No release by February 14

$26.7k Vol.

$33.8k Liq.

Ends in 13 days

Grok 5 released by...?

Elon Musk

AI

Grok 5 released by...?

75%

June 30, 2026

$183k Vol.

$6.4k Liq.

27

Ends in 5 months

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Elon Musk

Business

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

22%

$12.8k Vol.

$2.7k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Elon Musk

Business

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

72%

$276k Vol.

$12.6k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Elon Musk

SpaceX

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

58%

Morgan Stanley

$304k Vol.

$34.7k Liq.

5

Ends in almost 2 years

Richest person on March 31?

Elon Musk

Business

Richest person on March 31?

97%

Elon Musk

$94.3k Vol.

$82.2k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months