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Chatgpt predictions & odds

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# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

35%

<2

$14.2K Vol.

$4.5K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

89%

$47.5K Vol.

$7.3K Liq.

14

Ends in 8 months

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

28%

50%+

$21.0K Vol.

$2.2K Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

11%

$67.9K Vol.

$6.7K Liq.

11

Ends in 8 months

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

41%

60%+

$30.2K Vol.

$1.9K Liq.

4

Ends in about 2 months

GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

95%

December 31, 2026

$299K Vol.

$13.7K Liq.

45

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?

90%

ChatGPT

$4.2K Vol.

$7.1K Liq.

Ends in 1 day

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?

86%

Claude by Anthropic

$1.7K Vol.

$3.9K Liq.

Ends in 1 day

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of May?

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of May?

93%

Anthropic

$10.6K Vol.

$35.4K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Which company has the second-best Coding AI model end of May?

Which company has the second-best Coding AI model end of May?

88%

Anthropic

$4.5K Vol.

$6.9K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?

Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?

48%

Anthropic

$46.5K Vol.

$51.5K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

82%

1560

$3.1K Vol.

$1.2K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

75%

Anthropic

$4M Vol.

$148K today

$2M Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #1 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

77%

Anthropic

$300K Vol.

$182K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

61%

Anthropic

$392K Vol.

$49.0K Liq.

51

Ends in about 2 months

Which company has the second best AI model end of May?

Which company has the second best AI model end of May?

85%

Anthropic

$33.9K Vol.

$55.5K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Which company has the #2 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #2 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)

73%

Anthropic

$8.6K Vol.

$11.0K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by June 30?

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by June 30?

56%

1560

$7.7K Vol.

$717 Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

45%

1525

$2.5K Vol.

$193 Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Which company has best AI model end of June?

60%

Anthropic

$5M Vol.

$959K Liq.

61

Ends in about 2 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 110 active markets for Chatgpt that lets you track or trade on predictions like “# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $10.8M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Which company has best AI model end of June?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Which company has best AI model end of June?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 60% chance to Anthropic. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

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