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GPT 5 predictions & odds

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GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

87%

July 31

$298K Vol.

$61.9K today

$46.1K Liq.

2

Ends in 2 months

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

44%

June 22–June 28

$32.7K Vol.

$18.5K Liq.

Ends in 29 days

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

32%

50%+

$24.4K Vol.

$1.4K Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

54%

60%+

$37.2K Vol.

$3.6K Liq.

4

Ends in about 1 month

GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

83%

December 31, 2026

$323K Vol.

$17.9K Liq.

44

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?

97%

September 30

$18.7K Vol.

$22.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Counter-Strike: Golden Five vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

Counter-Strike: Golden Five vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

100%

LPH Gaming

$33.2K Vol.

Grok 5 released by...?

Grok 5 released by...?

9%

June 30, 2026

$161K Vol.

$3.2K Liq.

29

Ends in about 1 month

Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Atreides

$1.8K Vol.

LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC  (BO5) - TCL Playoffs

LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs

94%

Misa Esports

$29 Vol.

$7.3K Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

SHISHKA

$603 Vol.

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?

30%

<2

$365 Vol.

$8.6K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Misa Esports

$916 Vol.

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in May 2026?

92%

<2

$32.8K Vol.

$8.1K Liq.

Ends in about 14 hours

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Endless Journey

$1.4K Vol.

Five Below Q1 comparable sales growth?

Five Below Q1 comparable sales growth?

32%

17.5%–20%

$9.7K Vol.

$6.8K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

CYBERSHOKE Prospects

$705 Vol.

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs

74%

Gentle Mates

$1.6K Vol.

$18.5K Liq.

Ends in about 9 hours

Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Donstu Esports

$2.3K Vol.

What will happen before GTA VI?

What will happen before GTA VI?

53%

GPT-6 released

$22M Vol.

$798K Liq.

880

Ends in 2 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like GPT 5.

Polymarket currently hosts 104 active markets for GPT 5 that lets you track or trade on predictions like “GPT-5.6 released by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $23.5M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “What will happen before GTA VI?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “What will happen before GTA VI?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on GPT 5 predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.