GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

81%

December 31, 2026

$357K Vol.

$36.2K Liq.

40

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Which company has best AI model end of June?

55%

Anthropic

$3M Vol.

$174K today

$345K Liq.

63

Ends in 3 months

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

46%

Anthropic

$140K Vol.

$163K Liq.

22

Ends in 3 months

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

45%

$8.7K Vol.

$2.4K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

39%

December 31, 2026

$232K Vol.

$7.9K Liq.

29

GPT-5.5 released by...?

GPT-5.5 released by...?

88%

June 30

$293K Vol.

$14.3K Liq.

4

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

31%

50%+

$0 Vol.

$596 Liq.

1

Ends in 3 months

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

50%

60%+

$17.6K Vol.

$847 Liq.

4

Ends in 3 months

Grok 5 released by...?

Grok 5 released by...?

27%

June 30, 2026

$281K Vol.

$10.5K Liq.

29

Ends in 3 months

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

10%

$0 Vol.

$1.9K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?

ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?

3%

$12.0K Vol.

$7.7K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?

34%

April 3

$15.3K Vol.

$4.5K Liq.

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

41%

$275K Vol.

$3.7K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Claude 5 released by…?

Claude 5 released by…?

34%

April 30, 2026

$3M Vol.

$29.3K Liq.

161

Ends in about 1 month

What will happen before GTA VI?

What will happen before GTA VI?

91%

Drake releases Iceman

$20M Vol.

$191K today

$2M Liq.

785

Ends in 4 months

GA-05 House Election Winner

GA-05 House Election Winner

94%

Democratic Party

$13.5K Vol.

$33.9K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

40%

0

$638K Vol.

$20.2K Liq.

9

Ends in about 1 year

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by...?

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by...?

51%

April 15

$71.4K Vol.

$4.8K Liq.

Ends in 19 days

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

11%

$37.7K Vol.

$18.6K Liq.

8

Ends in about 1 year

Counter-Strike: rottweilers vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #20 Group A

Counter-Strike: rottweilers vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #20 Group A

60%

rottweilers

$132 Vol.

$517 Liq.

Ends in about 6 hours

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like GPT 5.

Polymarket currently hosts 108 active markets for GPT 5 that lets you track or trade on predictions like “GPT-6 released by…?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $27.7M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “What will happen before GTA VI?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “What will happen before GTA VI?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 91% chance to Drake releases Iceman. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on GPT 5 predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.